The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Public BDCs show massive valuation discrepancies on identical syndicated club loans
“There's some obvious ones where you see, let's just say public BDCs that own the same club deal, the same loan. One BDC versus another, or two or three versus a fourth BDC, there's a massive variance, in a second lien especially, where you're like, wait, the f…”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 28:25 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Assertion Supported
Certain private credit loans drop from par to zero in one quarter
“Then you have micro situations where loans are getting marked from hundred to zero in one quarter.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 29:55 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Assertion Partly supported
Interval funds must prove total illiquidity to secure SEC exemption for gating
“The bar to gate is really high. You literally need an SEC exemption, and that's not because prices are low. You have to show the SEC, I don't have any liquidity.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 42:42 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Assertion Supported
SaaS stress is driving sharp CLO equity underperformance
“It reminds me today where you just had one or two sectors having a lot of stress like we have today and the SAS with respect to levered loans, and we're seeing it in CLO equity has way underperformed. The relative loan market, because all of the damage has bee…”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 13:19 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Assertion Supported
Boaz Weinstein's hostile takeover bid for Sculptor Capital failed after six months
“We went through that process. I'd never been in a hostile takeover situation. The bidding group was super interesting people that he's friends with. That took six months, and we didn't win.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 21:18 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Assertion Supported
JPMorgan Chase marked down valuations on some software loans
“JP Morgan marked down some software loans as far as their bank lender.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 43:46 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Assertion Partly supported
Non-traded BDCs exploded from zero to $350 billion in assets since 2018
“Zero to three hundred and fifty billion dollars in non-traded BDCs from 2018 to now. That's unprecedented.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 23:37 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Assertion Supported
Blackstone's BCRED private credit vehicle faced 7.9% in redemption requests
“When Bcred had 7.9% of redemptions, they thought about, listen, we're gonna do everything we can to get everyone their money back.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 38:37 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
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