why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Charles: Top-tier mega-firms raised $250B via captive insurance and wealth channels
“In the last 12 months, The level 10 firms in our framework have raised two hundred and fifty billion dollars from insurance companies they control or through the wealth channel with sales forces that are theirs.”
Assertion Supported
Charles: Private equity distribution yield is currently historically terrible
“The yield of private equity today is as bad as it's ever been. You're in the bottom quintile of distribution yield right now.”
Assertion Supported
Charles: Private equity drawdowns doubled to $40B and NAV tripled in five years
“Over the last decade, while distributions have been very consistent at 40 a quarter, Drawdowns have doubled to 40, and NAV has tripled in the last five years, so the yield has just nosedived.”
Assertion Supported
Charles: Average distribution yield today would beat PE exit records by 25%
“If you just get an average yield on all of the accumulated NAV, this year would be the biggest exit year ever, and it would exceed the best year ever by about 20, 25% in dollar volume of exits.”
Assertion Supported
Charles: Inorganic transactions account for 20% of recent PE exit activity
“By our estimate, between 15 and 20% of all the exit activity the last two years has come from inorganic transactions.”
Assertion Supported
New York Yankees equity compounded at 9.7% annually over 115 years
“Over the last, I think it's 115 years, US inflation has run at an annualized rate of around, I think it's 3.1%.
US public equities have compounded at around a 5.9%.
And equity in the New York Yankees has compounded at 9.7% per year for a 115 years.”
Assertion Supported
Charles: Post-election optimism drove non-market rallies in public alt manager stocks
“There's this animal spirit around the election results, the new administration, deregulation, and you can see that animal spirit in the price change of publicly traded adults, managers, strategic advisory firms. Their share prices have moved in non-market ways…”
Assertion Supported
Sports leagues ban institutional funds from using leverage or holding governance control
“You're not allowed to use leverage. You're not allowed to use the assets as collateral in a back levering package. You're not allowed to have formal governance control.”
Assertion Supported
Tech and finance executives comprise 60% of new sports team owners
“So if you look at control ownership transactions over the last decade,
I think something like 60, 65% of the new control owners in North American pro sports have either come from the technology sector or finance.”
Assertion Supported
The average Big Four sports franchise is valued around $2 billion
“I think the average evaluation for one of the teams in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, NFL, NHL, I think it's about two billion dollars, 2.2 billion dollars, something like that.”
Assertion Supported
League-level revenue accounts for 40% to 80% of sports team economics
“Depending on the league, 40 to 80% of the economics for each team are generated at the league level.”
Assertion Supported
Some leagues require funds to dedicate $500M to $700M for ownership
“Some of the leagues Require that you have at least 500 or seven hundred million of capital dedicated to their league.”
Assertion Supported
Major sports leagues recently locked in media rights for 12 years
“For us, a big part of that risk has been taken out of the system for the next seven to 12 years because Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, and the NFL, and a couple of the European soccer leagues have all repriced their national and internation…”