The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lippmann: 2000-vintage mortgages in booming regions had 6-7% default rates
“What we saw was that after six years,
The default rate in places in the top quartile where homes were going up 12 to 14% a year, the default rate was still six or seven percent.”
Lippmann: Slow-growth 2000-vintage mortgages had 28% defaults and 50%+ losses
“But if you looked at the bottom quartile for houses, they were going up three to four percent per year, and 28% of the people were defaulting. And we were losing 50, 55 cents on the dollar when they did, because of the similar type of slippage.”
Lippmann: Subprime short took over a year to reprice, moving in February 2007
“February of 2007, the prices started to move, and I began to have a little bit of notoriety for the trade. So I had been involved in the trade for over a year before it worked in any sort of meaningful way.”
Lippmann: Structured credit derivatives are a shadow of their pre-crisis size
“The derivative market is a shadow of what it was back then.”
Lippmann: In 1991 banks manually phoned mortgage servicers to track delinquencies
“And at the time there was no Bloomberg really. Bloomberg was existed, but it was a very, very minor thing. And all the banks had their own internal mortgage backed security departments and whatnot. And so there was a huge demand for people to Call up the mortg…”