The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Klein: Research shows using a devil's advocate produces significantly worse outcomes
“I'm only aware of one study that tried to evaluate the effect of a devil's advocate to see if it had an effect, and they got a significant result. It was significantly worse than not using a devil's advocate.”
Klein: Pre-mortems reduce overconfidence significantly more than listing pros and cons
“Listing pros and cons are just cons. Reduced confidence, but the premortem reduced confidence more than any of the other techniques we measured.”
Klein: Teams in a garden path study failed to surface collective doubts
“And we once did a study where we had four-person teams going through an exercise, and it's called a garden path exercise, where we introduced something at the beginning that made it seem that certain thing was going to happen, and everybody was preparing for i…”