The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Growth, Not Value, Is the Best Currency Hedge in Emerging Markets
“The currency risk is relatively expensive most of the time. So the best hedge for the currency and for volatility is growth in emerging market. It's not value.”
Brazil's Corporate Governance Is Among the Best in Emerging Markets
“I would dare to say that corporate governance is the best among emerging markets here. If not the best, among the best, definitely.”
Passive Investing in Brazil Exposes Investors to Legacy Industries
“So when you go passive, it's almost like investing the old boring Brazil. Steel, fuel distribution, mining, great companies, but it's not the future, it's not the most innovative companies.”
Valuation Gap Between Top and Mediocre Companies Is at All-Time High
“The valuation gap between the best companies and the so-so companies has never been as wide as it is today.”
Fund Managers Should Never Hold 15 Percent Positions in One Company
“You shouldn't have In the long run, 15% in one company. You shouldn't, because again, this is a competitive business. We are not managing our own money, and we don't care. No, this is a competitive business. You shouldn't have 15% in one company. Of course, if…”
Investors in Their 30s Are the Most Dangerous Because They Overthink
“I love the sixty-year-olds or fifty-year-olds. I love the twenty-year-olds. The 30, 35 are the most dangerous. Why? Because when you're 50, 60, you saw a lot of things, and you simplify. You know what works, what doesn't, and you do it very simple. When you're…”
WEG Can Deliver 25% to 30% Annual IRR at Current Multiple
“It's been a great performer, but we see a 25, 30% IRR per year at the current multiple.”
Localiza Earnings Will Grow 25% to 30% Annually Post-Acquisition
“So we expect earnings to go at 25, 30% a year with synergies and the growth of the market.”
Nubank Has 50M Customers and a $45B Valuation
“Nubank is the largest digital bank in the world with almost 50 million customers. It's now trading at a forty five billion dollar valuation. Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway actually invested in a private round and in the IPO. Sequoia, SoftBank are investors.”
Foreign Banks Struggle in Brazil While Local Banks Earn 20% ROE
“Local incumbents have a lot of competitive advantages, so it's very hard for a foreign company to be profitable in Brazil, with the exception of Santander, which actually acquired a big local bank here in Brazil. Very few international banks make money in Braz…”
Brazil's Largest Pharmacy Chain Is Out-Opening All Competitors Combined
“The largest drugstore and pharmacies, let's say chain in Brazil, they're opening this year more pharmacies than the combined number of their competitors.”
Developing Opinions on Stocks Is Rarer Than Evaluating Business Models
“Everybody can be a journalist just taking notes. Most can do good spreadsheets. Most can have an opinion on the quality of businesses, but it's very hard to find analysts or portfolio managers that have the talent to have a opinion on stocks.”
Analyzing Brazilian Banks Requires Researching Global Private Fintechs
“In order to understand a Brazilian bank, you have to look at the private banks, the startups, and you have to look at the international banks, either JP Morgan or Chime or Revolut or others.”
XP Trades at 20x Earnings While Growing Earnings 30% to 35%
“And XP is growing with a better product, a more sophisticated offering, and the stock trades at 20 times earnings, which is a bargain, growing earnings at 30, 35%.”
High-Growth Brazilian Stocks Trade at Half the US Revenue Multiple
“What I would say is that Brazil is cheaper in terms of price to growth. So when you look at the price to growth, most of these compounds are trading at .8.75. So compared to the U.S., they're relatively cheap. And the high growers, let's say the really high gr…”
Brazil's Real Investment Story Lies in Young Entrepreneurs, Not Government
“The real story in Brazil is with a young generation, with entrepreneurs, go talk to some venture capital funds and see all of the energy and great new businesses and innovative ideas that are being created here in Brazil.”
Founded Proprietary Fund for AB InBev and Kraft Heinz Founders
“And after eight years at the bank, I started, let's say, a proprietary fund for three families who currently
Are the largest shareholders of ABI InBev, Kraft Heinz, Burger King, and others.”
Brazilian Stock Indices Are Dominated by Commodities and Legacy Banks
“So, when you look at the Ibovespa or the MSCI, again, commodities are the majority of the index plus large banks.”
Constellation Returned 6x to 12x in Top Brazilian Market Leaders
“We made 12 times our money in the largest education company in Brazil, six times our money in the largest e-commerce business in Brazil, eight times our money in the largest drugstore in Brazil. And this is eight years, six years, seven years, and just betting…”
Lone Pine Capital Is a General Partner in Constellation Asset Management
“Lone Pine Capital is a good friend of us, and a GP in our business.”
Over Half of WEG's Products Were Launched in Past Five Years
“More than half of their products were launched in the last five years, and this is one of the best managed companies in Brazil.”
Brazilian Pharmacy Chain Raia Drogasil Opens 300 Stores Annually
“As I mentioned before, it's opening 300 locations a year.”
TOTVS Grows 20% to 25% Annually at Discount to US SaaS
“It's a subscription-based business growing top line and earnings at 20, 25% a year, trading at a big discount to the big software as a service companies in the US or in other markets.”
Mercado Livre Trades at 100x Earnings with 40% to 50% Growth
“You also have some highly innovative companies like Mercado Livre, which is the leader in e-commerce in Latin America, trading at 100 times earnings, 90 times earnings, but these are growing earnings at 40, 50% a year.”
Holdings Fell 30% While Earnings Expectations Rose 5% to 8%
“When we look at our businesses, in the last six months, on average, the companies fell 30% from the peak. Some fell 40, some fell 15, But on average, 30. When you look at earnings expectations, they are, after the third quarter earnings, they were up five to e…”