The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Casdin: Drug development success rates will rise and costs will fall
“Our industry over the next 10 years, and I can say that comfortably, drugs are going to be higher chance of approval, higher chance of efficacy. Probability of success is going to go up continually, and cost of that success is going to come down.”
Eli Casdin Jul 15, 2021 ▶ 1:02:24 Eli Casdin – Casdin Capital (Manager Meetings, EP.02)
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 700 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.