why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Rubenstein: Blackstone, Carlyle, KKR, Apollo make 95% of profits in developed markets
“In the end, if you look at the large firms that we're now talking about, and I'll use the four big ones, Blackstone, Carlyle, KKR, and Apollo. They make 95% of their money in the developed markets. I'm counting China and India, I suppose, is developed for this…”
Assertion Supported
Rubenstein: Carlyle stock performed better after founders stepped back
“Our stock price has done much better under this way than when Bill and I were running it”
Assertion Supported
Rubenstein: Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo lacked global footprints when Carlyle expanded
“Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo really hadn't built international businesses, honestly, at that time, as we were beginning to do it.”
Prediction Held up
Rubenstein: Large family offices will increasingly compete against PE firms
“As we go forward, I suspect you'll see more and more competition from family offices that are large and they will do deals competing with private equity firms.”
Assertion Supported
Rubenstein: Early 1980s buyouts required only 1% to 5% equity
“In those days, this is the early 19 eighties, leveraged buyouts were five percent equity or one percent equity. And very often the one percent equity deals, you would take a one percent fee. So you basically got your money back.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rubenstein: Bill Simon made roughly $80M on $1M Gibson Greetings buyout
“In his case, it got an enormous amount of attention because he, in 18 months, he put in roughly a million dollars. I'm not sure how much he had left in it after the fees and everything, but for his million dollars or a little bit less than a million dollars, h…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rubenstein: Carlyle Group launched with four co-founders and $5M
“We had four of us at the beginning. The person from Marriott, his name was Steve Norris, joined us. Then we went out, and he recruited, with my help, another guy from Marriott, Dan Daniello, and then we recruited Bill Conway, who was then the CFO of MCI. Those…”