The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Lyon: Private equity falsely held 2022 valuations flat despite public market plunges
“If you looked at 2022, the S&P was down 20%. The NASDAQ was down 30%. Let's say private equity lives somewhere between those two worlds. Private equity was flat for the year.”
David Lyon Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 26:51 David Lyon – Hybrid Capital Solutions for Private Assets (EP.471)
Assertion Supported
Lyon: Direct lenders now hold $2B per deal, competing with syndicated loans
“Today, direct lending competes with the syndicated loan market. Big players have hundreds of billions of dollars. They will hold two billion dollars in a name, so it's no longer a cottage industry supporting the underbanked. It is a direct competitor to the sy…”
David Lyon Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 20:24 David Lyon – Hybrid Capital Solutions for Private Assets (EP.471)
Assertion Contradicted
Lyon: Top 10 PE firms raise two-thirds of all asset class capital
“The vast majority of capital being raised in private equity, I think the number is two-thirds, is the top 10 firms.”
David Lyon Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 27:20 David Lyon – Hybrid Capital Solutions for Private Assets (EP.471)
Assertion Supported
Lyon: COVID syndicated loan distress lasted 8 days versus 294 in GFC
“During COVID, syndicated loans traded below 80 cents for eight days. During the GFC, 294.”
David Lyon Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 30:06 David Lyon – Hybrid Capital Solutions for Private Assets (EP.471)
Assertion Supported
Lyon: About 93% of pre-GFC CLOs generated positive equity returns
“I'm not a CLO guy, but something like 93% of the CLOs formed before the GFC had positive equity returns.”
David Lyon Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 1:05:44 David Lyon – Hybrid Capital Solutions for Private Assets (EP.471)
Assertion Supported
Lyon: Unitranche borrowing costs moved from 6.25% in 2021 to around 9%
“Used to be able to borrow Unitronch back in 21 at six and a quarter percent. Now those numbers are around nine and changed today. They were 13.”
David Lyon Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 24:05 David Lyon – Hybrid Capital Solutions for Private Assets (EP.471)
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