The Ledger
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Ivascyn: Green transition and geopolitics will drive structural inflation and desynchronized growth
“In the last few years, we've talked about a world where There's going to be less synchronized growth cycles where inflation is going to be more of a challenge going forward, perhaps structurally because of some of the physical investment necessary, particularl…”
Ivascyn: PIMCO expects US core inflation in high 2% range by year-end
“In the spread sectors, our base case economic view is reasonably constructive. U.S. Inflation heading back down to the high two level on the core side at the end of the year. Based on recent constructive economic data, slow growth, basically a fifty-fifty chan…”
Ivascyn: Public credit offers more immediate value than private credit in 2023
“So when we look at the market environment today, We definitely see more immediate value within the public segment of the opportunity set. A lot of people that may have left that market or are structurally tilted towards private markets really should think abou…”
Ivascyn: Fed rates at 5% will trigger massive loan downgrades
“If we see even moderate declines in EBITDA over the course of the next few quarters with the fed at five percent and gosh, six percent would be a real challenge. We think a massive amount of that opportunity set is going to be open and subject to potential dow…”
Ivascyn: Investors should not expect rapid government bailouts in next crisis
“I think with inflation where it is, with debt levels where they are, with political gridlock where it is currently, It's very dangerous to think that a rescue will come relatively quickly the next time we have a crisis type environment.”
Ivascyn: PIMCO's 2014 transition was more challenging on business than portfolios
“The transition in 2014 was challenging on the portfolio management side. I think it was even more challenging on the business side.”
Ivascyn: Portfolio managers tend to underappreciate extreme outcome probabilities
“There's just a natural tendency for people in our seats to underappreciate the probability of extreme outcomes.”
Ivascyn: Private assets typically deliver 200-300+ bps incremental return over public
“Apples to apples comparisons, you've typically over a full cycle been able to generate two, 300, or even more basis points of incremental return in a private asset versus a public asset.”
Ivascyn: Credit opportunity over next few years ranks 7-8 out of 10
“If that was a 10 on a scale of one to 10, I think you're probably going to be somewhere in that seven to eight ranking type range. For patient capital over the next few years in the higher return segment of the opportunity set.”
Ivascyn: Retail fund redemption gates signal rare forced selling opportunities
“Gates going up on retail products that were perceived to be much more liquid than they were. Explicit strategies that have gates that need to open over a fixed timeframe where they must sell over the course of a short period of time and where they're holding e…”
Ivascyn: Allocators tend to pull back right when opportunities peak
“You're going to have bad vintages. When the bad vintages occur, it's like cat risk. You get the best opportunities on a go-forward basis, but allocators tend to get scared away, or boards tend to get scared away at precisely the wrong time.”
Ivascyn: Junior investors should manually calculate math that computers automate
“Do some of the math that the computers are doing for you. It stinks now. It's going to drive you crazy. It's going to pay dividends, I promise, later on in one's career.”
Ivascyn: PIMCO shifted duration from record lows to near-neutral positioning
“We have taken our duration higher. About 18 months or so ago, we were running near the historically lowest level within our duration range, and as markets have become more attractive just from a rates perspective, we've taken that all the way up to neutral dur…”
Ivascyn: PIMCO temporarily kicked him off mortgage desk early in career
“When I was having a rough time in the mortgage desk, it was really rough to the point where they wanted to kick me off the desk, and they did for a while. They kicked me over into the currency space, which wasn't the most glamorous position at PIMCO at the tim…”