The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Sternlicht: Lordstown Motors committed fraud and lied about vehicle orders
“They front run the trade. They lied about their orders. They made up the car. It was a fraud. The model they showed the street was not active.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 54:26 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Assertion Supported
Sternlicht: Marriott lobbied Washington to outlaw Starwood's paired-share REIT structure
“Bill Marriott had been at this for 40 years, and I've been at it for three. He decided that this enough is enough, and they're gonna get rid of our paired share structure. So he went to Washington, and in the budget reconciliation bill of that year, they threw…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 17:34 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Assertion Contradicted
Sternlicht: Amazon subsidizes $4B-$5B retail losses with AWS to destroy small retailers
“It's fundamentally destroying mom and dad retail across the country, and it's one of my pet peeves because they were allowed to sell product retail-wise for less than the cost of, they're losing four or five billion a year in retail, which they subsidize with …”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 37:55 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sternlicht: Amazon Prime will hit $500 once competing retail is gone
“They charge us 75 dollars, and now I think it's a hundred. They'll go to 500 when there's nothing left but Amazon in this country.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 38:42 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Insight
Sternlicht: Modern REIT industry was born to let owners escape recourse debt
“The reed industry was born not because people wanted to the good graces of these very rich real estate guys, it's because they were all on recourse debt, and interest rates plummeted, And all of a sudden the dividend yield of an unleveraged real estate portfol…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 9:58 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Insight
Sternlicht: Investors Underprice Political and Legal Risk in Emerging Markets
“One of the lessons I've learned over the last couple of years, 30 years, is we don't put enough political risk into our Like a 20 in India is not the same thing as a 20 in the United States. There's so many things that can go wrong, and the rule of law is so l…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 41:27 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Disclosure
Sternlicht: Starwood Brooklyn Hotel Faces Severe Staffing Deficit Despite $10 Wage Hike
“I was at the, our hotel in Brooklyn last night and we have 200 and 20 people on staff and we're missing 40 people. And we're running a full hotel and we can't run the hotel. We can't do room service. Some of our, we're having job fairs and we've raised rates 1…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 46:26 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sternlicht: Tokenization of finance will change the world like the internet
“And there's no question that the tokenization of finance and other things is going to change the world the way the internet changed the world.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 49:35 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Opinion
Sternlicht: Bitcoin is as good as gold and arguably better
“Can't be used for much, but it's certainly as good as gold and arguably slightly better because it's an infinite supply and easily accessible.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 50:07 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Prediction Held up
Sternlicht: Desperate SPAC sponsors will cut promotes by 25% to 75%
“The outcome of this will be as the two year anniversary of those SPACs births comes around, they would get desperate and they will start cutting their promotes 25, 50, 75%, just so they don't lose the sponsor equity capital they put up. So it's going to be a b…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 52:59 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Insight
Sternlicht: Single-family rentals match multifamily margins with lower defaults
“Turned out they had the same margins as multis. The tenants are usually higher quality, so you're less default because it's a family, not a kid. And with tech, you organize your maintenance calls in a route that didn't really tax you.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 58:20 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Insight
Sternlicht: Do not blindly trust top VC firms like a16z or Sequoia
“The key to investing is actually doing your own work. Then you triangulate other people's opinions and stuff, but do your own work. And I, the biggest mistakes like you often find when you find Andreas and Horowitz and Sequoia are, they're all in this deal. I …”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 1:00:14 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Insight
Sternlicht: Real estate investors should sell when asset prices reach replacement cost
“One of the rules of real estate is when prices get to replacement costs, you should sell, because when the prices get that high, new construction begins”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 9:58 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Disclosure
Sternlicht: Starwood owns no office or residential properties in SF or NYC
“So we don't own anything in San Francisco or New York. We own a couple hotels in New York. We own no office, no residential anymore, and we've been active in these markets. We got out years ago, way before COVID.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 29:16 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Disclosure
Sternlicht: Crypto accounts for about 3% of personal net worth
“I kind of figured out, you know, again, it's like most people would say that's probably three percent of my net worth.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 49:49 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Disclosure
Sternlicht: Starwood executed pandemic rescue financing for TPG's TRTX
“We did a rescue package on TPG's mortgagry, TRTX, and he said, how could you do this? My son, who's just entered Harvard Business School, and I was explaining to him that at these values, where our attachment points were for the loans we were getting, we could…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 55:22 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Insight
Sternlicht: Real estate remains the last great imperfect market
“Real estate seemed like, okay, it was also the last great imperfect market. Things happen in the real estate market that don't happen in the securities market. People do deals because they have a tax situation, or they don't want people to see what they screwe…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 6:09 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Assertion Supported
Sternlicht: Starwood acquired 8,000 apartments and tripled investor money in 18 months
“We bought 8000 apartments in 18 months and I sold them all to Sam Zell and we tripled their money in 18 months.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 9:49 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Insight
Sternlicht: Pure hotel management contracts cause destructive overbuilding
“Management companies, which only own management contracts, want you to build. So if you don't build, they don't get revenue and they don't really care how the asset fares, right? So you would have wild increases in supply, cash flows would crash. This way, whe…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 18:06 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Assertion Partly supported
Sternlicht: San Francisco is the worst US office market with 30% vacancy or sublease
“And so the worst office market in the United States is San Francisco, where 30% of the space is vacant or trying to be subleased, which is staggering.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 32:25 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Disclosure
Sternlicht: Starwood Avoids Real Estate Deals in China Except Hotels
“We've avoided going to China as investors, except in one area, in hotels. We have a joint venture with a Chinese account.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 40:19 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Assertion Supported
Sternlicht: Land Is 65%–75% of Indian Building Costs vs. 20%–25% in US
“And in the US, probably the building, the land for a building, is going to be 20% of the cost of the building, 25. In India, it's 65, 75. So the land purchases everything.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 42:13 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Assertion Supported
Sternlicht: Starwood Lodging grew from $8 million to $20 billion in three years
“We were eight million equity, and in three years we were twenty billion dollars.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 13:45 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Disclosure
Sternlicht: Starwood owns 110,000 apartments, including 40,000 affordable units
“We, I think we have a 110,000 apartments, something like that, one of the largest owners in the country, of which 40,000, I think, are affordable housing.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 23:11 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
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