why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Paul: The NFT Space Will Probably Grow 100x By 2024
“So I think over the next three years, we're going to see the NFT space grow probably a hundred X in size.”
Assertion Partly supported
Paul: Most Top Ten US Endowments Have Invested in Crypto Funds
“What I can say generally about the endowment world is most of the top 10 endowments have invested in crypto funds.”
Assertion Supported
Paul: Endowments and Pensions Were Net Sellers in 2008 Crisis
“The reality was in the financial crisis, endowments and pensions were net sellers, not net buyers.”
Assertion Supported
Paul: Two Sigma, Citadel, and Rentech Stayed Out of Crypto in 2017
“I saw that guys like Two Sigma and Citadel and Rentech and the discretionary trading houses, none of them were in crypto for good reasons.”
Assertion Contradicted
Paul: BitMEX held 70% of global Bitcoin trading volume around 2020
“BitMEX, which had the largest trading volume for Bitcoin in the world, they had 70% of all volume about a year ago.”
Assertion Supported
Ari Paul: Uniswap generates 30 bps fees on over $1B daily volume
“Uniswap, you can actually value in a very equity-like way based on cash flows, because Uniswap actually collects a 30 basis point fee on all transactions, and it's currently doing more than a billion dollars a day in transactions.”
Assertion Supported
Ari Paul: CME Bitcoin futures often trade at 20% annualized premium to spot
“Basis, you can capture CME futures, often trade at a 20% annualized premium to spot Bitcoin.”