The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Perold: Market volatility strongly predicts a higher risk of subsequent drawdown
“There's very strong evidence that when things are volatile, thereafter, the risk of a big drawdown is much higher than when things are calm.”
Perold: Biotech represents one-seventh of US public companies but only $600B market cap
“At its highest level, you have today some 600 public companies in this country, about out of 4000 total public companies, so it's about a seventh of all public companies in this country are in biotech per se. They small caps, so the total caps about six hundre…”
André Perold: S&P 500 gained 9% annually since 2005, 3% from multiples
“You know, the last 15 years that we've been in business, if you look at the return on the S&P, it's nine percent a year since the late 2005. Of the nine, three percent a year has come from multiple expansion, and that three percent a year is entirely consisten…”
Perold: March 2020 dislocation dumped AAA munis from 140 to 80s
“A great example was in March. When the market, it was a massive dislocation. You had mutual funds being redeemed. They were dumping AAA bonds, especially AAA munis were being dumped at crazy prices. AAA bonds that were trading at 140 were selling in the eighti…”