The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 103 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Duke: Women make up only three percent of poker room players
“In an average poker room, three percent of the people playing are women.”
Duke: Emotional agitation shuts down prefrontal cortex reasoning
“When you're emotionally lit up, it's like your brain is shaking, and it shuts down the prefrontal cortex. It shuts down your ability to reason in the same way that a pinball machine just won't work anymore.”
Duke: Framing decisions as bets forces probabilistic thinking and reduces bias
“If we start to think about things as bets, which makes the risk explicit, it forces step three. If we go back to Dan Gilbert's work, it forces that vetting step... So it forces you to start thinking probabilistically. It forces you to start going through that …”
Duke: Leaders expressing total certainty silence contrary information from their teams
“When I express things with total certainty, one thing you might do is not tell me what you know about it because you're embarrassed. Because I've said it with such assurance that maybe now you think you're wrong about this whole Citizen Kane thing... But reaso…”
Duke: Decision-makers should actively share details they feel reluctant to reveal
“Whenever you feel like you don't want to share a detail, those are the details you should share. That's a very good rule of thumb. Because it probably means that it's going to cast you in a bad light in some way.”
Duke: Red teams solve corporate consensus pressure by rewarding dissent
“Within your company, you can do that through really creating red teams. So you have red team, blue team, that's one way to do it. And notice what's really wonderful about the red team thing in particular is, remember I said we have this team player issue, is t…”
Duke: Evolutionary biology provides unmatched mental rigor for interpreting evidence
“To really understand, like, how you think through a problem, what evidence means, how do you interpret evidence, What does it mean to have different disciplines line up to get you the same answer, that consilience and convergence, and how important those are i…”