The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 62 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Plans $20M–$25M Target for African Startup Investments in 2022
“We have made a series of what I consider seed investments. Not all the companies are startups. They're, in some cases, larger. Valuations have been between 20 and a hundred and fifty million. We've looked at some that are approaching a billion dollars, and I m…”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 1:04:45 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Insight
Wolfe: VCs must be cynical and distrustful to spot carny charlatans
“You've got all kinds of carny charlatans that basically sculpt you into a somewhat cynical, squinty eyed, distrustful person of, you know, somebody trying to scheme over you, which I think in my business where you never really know if somebody is going to be l…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 6:13 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Assertion Supported
Lux-backed Kurion handled Fukushima cleanup and sold to Veolia for $400M
“We became the only U.S. Company pick for the cleanup, and we went from a million to 2040, 8000, 140. We sold that at forty million of EBITDA 10 times to a big French company, Veolia”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 25:21 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Disclosure
Lux Capital limits its entire seed program to one core position's size
“We have an active seed program where you could do a lot of those, but what we limited is that the total aggregate dollars that we invest in seeds, which are typically sub-two million dollars, so it could be a quarter million here, half million there, a million…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 40:26 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Disclosure
Lux Capital passed on Cruise at $80M pre before GM's $1B acquisition
“The story which I tell publicly is about cruise automation. We offered them a twenty million dollar financing at a forty million pre, and they wanted eighty million pre money, and we thought that was absurd and too high. In the course of diligence, we introduc…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 45:36 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Insight
Wolfe considers a 3.5x return on Crystal IS a process failure
“And here we ended up making three, three and a half times our money, but we considered it a process failure because all the expectations, all the modeling that we had and what the outcome could be, the reasons that a business would be bought all proved false. …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 46:38 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: Secondaries will thrive as overextended venture investors need liquidity
“I think that secondaries are going to be a great spot for LPs, where there's going to be a lot of people that get out over their skis and are going to need liquidity, and people that have ready pools of capital, I think, are probably going to be well positione…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 51:59 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Capital divides investments equally across biotech, aerospace/defense, and core tech
“We do everything at Lux from about a third in biotech and robotic surgery and med devices and another third in aerospace and defense and industrial. The other third on core technology, which is everything from non-invasive brain machine interfaces to everythin…”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 9:54 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Meta acquired CTRL-labs for slightly under $1 billion
“Coincidentally, Meta bought that for a little under a billion dollars, started by this guy Reardon.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 48:09 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux focuses on starting deep-tech companies with under five competitors
“And so we are spending more and more time on the deeply technical, very hard to do Under five competitors and helping those entrepreneurs start those companies because we're not playing in an auction game.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 17:14 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Carlyle Co-Founder Bill Conway Seeded Lux Capital and Its Management Company
“Bill Conway, who was one of the founders of Carlisle, and he's not really bullish on venture. I mean, Carlisle is, you know, one of the greatest private equity and buy-off funds, But he doesn't love venture capital, but there was something, whether it was the …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 14:51 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Capital manages under $1.5B and raises $400M every two years
“Now just under a billion and a half. You know, we have periodicity where now we're about every two years raising about four hundred million dollars.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 23:26 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Capital manages 120+ portfolio companies with a 10-person team
“Between, we've got a 120 plus companies, we've got 10 people on the investment team.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 37:56 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Disclosure
Lux Capital targets 25 to 30 core positions of $15M-$25M per fund
“Now, a fully funded, structured portfolio for us is somewhere between 25 and 30 core positions, which means that each investing partner is doing between one and two core deals a year. And a core deal for us Is investing somewhere between 15 and twenty-five mil…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 40:10 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
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