The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
US private equity multiples are distorted and significantly overpriced
“Now I think private markets are much more expensive than public markets, and you can see this with the venture-backed stuff like WeWork. Private markets say it's worth seventy-five billion. Public markets say it's worthless. You can see it in the deal multiple…”
Dan Rasmussen Feb 17, 2020 ▶ 24:09 Dan Rasmussen – Private Equity Risk and Public Equity Opportunity at Verdad Advisers (First Meeting, EP.15)
Prediction Held up
Wolfe: WeWork will face severe downside operating leverage when economic conditions contract
“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 58:29 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Disclosure
Baker: Cut WeWork allocation in half when valuation was pushed
“I did invest in WeWork. They pushed the price, and I did cut my order in half. Never did anymore, to the best of my memory, but it's not like it was all roses or successes.”
Gavin Baker Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 32:06 Gavin Baker – Truth-Seeking and Crossover Investing at Atreides (EP.489)
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