The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Distressed debt returns during crises have historically been disappointing
“Distressed debt doesn't do all that well. Everybody says, oh, the thing I want to do in the next crisis is buy a lot of distressed debt. Well, we have a simple rule at Verdad on both the equity side and the credit side, which don't buy things that go bankrupt.…”
CEO pedigree and elite education do not predict stock returns
“Turns out that going to business school empirically does not mean that your stock price does better. Turns out working at an investment bank or top tier consulting firm has no impact on the stock price of the company that you run. Turns out that your track rec…”
Simple quantitative models have 8x the statistical power during recessions
“Simple quantitative models tend to have about eight times the level of statistical power during recessions than during times of economic growth.”
Middle-tier high-yield bonds deliver the highest expected credit returns
“And the long-term empirical research actually finds that that stuff, the sort of Goldilocks of the bond market, does better. That it actually has the highest expected returns.”
Alpha comes from tedious trading that larger funds cannot execute
“Our logic, again, is that if we are doing things that other people are unwilling to do or unable to do, unwilling because it's tedious and boring, unable because of capacity issues, and we can do that, that should be where alpha is. I mean, that should be what…”