why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mullen: TPG-Angelo Gordon deal marks the start of a massive M&A wave
“I think you're going to see what Angelo Gordon did with TPG is the beginning of a massive wave of this. There's a lot of mergers that are going to take place.”
Assertion Supported
Apollo and TPG transferred Caesars casinos to bankruptcy-remote entities
“Apollo and TPG executed a series of these complex asset deals, asset transfers, financial engineering, where more money is put in the business. They buy casinos from the existing Caesars and Harris Opgo, all in an attempt, ostensibly, to Keep everybody's inves…”
Insight
Caesars restructuring became a PE roadmap rather than a cautionary tale
“Caesars ended up being less of a cautionary tale and more of a roadmap, and the reason for that, I think, is very simple. People realized that after this deal, Apollo raises a twenty-five billion dollar fund, and the LP community didn't really penalize them, a…”
Assertion Supported
Reynolds: TPG founders apologized globally and let LPs cut fund commitments
“We had to do what we called at the time a contrition tour, which was essentially David Bonderman and Jim Coulter traveling all around the world apologizing to our investors. We gave people an option to take their money out. We gave people an option to reduce t…”
Assertion Supported
Reynolds: TPG's WaMu deal went to zero before capital calls finished
“TPG had raised a twenty billion dollar fund that it started to deploy very quickly into mega buyout deals right before Lehman fell and the financial crisis began. The first deal in that fund was Washington Mutual. Which went to zero before the capital was call…”
Assertion Partly supported
Stavros: Top PE firms each control up to one million employees
“Or in a more concentrated way, could you convince Blackstone, Carlyle, TPG, Apollo, Aries, Warburg, Pincus, Bain, a handful of companies which each control half a million, million employees.”
Assertion Supported
Apollo and TPG funded 80% of Harrah's $30 billion buyout with debt
“They put together a deal to buy Cesar O'Hara's for almost thirty billion dollars, putting just six billion dollars down to it. So basically, 80% of the purchase price is funded with debt”