The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Corlett: TDM will compound $1.5B into $15B over next 10 years
“We're now at 1.5, and we think we can keep compounding at the same rate for another 10 years. And over that time, the 1.5 turns into fifteen billion and still be able to invest Exactly the same way we've been investing the past 16 years.”
Corlett: Guzman y Gomez can reach a $50B valuation
“In the next gen business, we've got a company like Guzman and Gomez, which we think is the McDonald's of the next generation. It's a great Australian Mexican food retail business that we think can be a fifty billion dollar business down the track.”
Corlett: Spotify and Square can grow revenue 20-30%+ for 10 years
“Take a couple of the companies we own at the moment, a Spotify or a Square, which we think can continue to grow revenue at 20, 30% plus for the next 10 years.”
Corlett: Ten people is the maximum team size for unanimous investment decisions
“We think around 10 people is probably the maximum number we can have to effectively execute that decision-making capability.”
Corlett: Great long-term investing requires enduring discomfort in non-consensus decisions
“You can't produce great returns for a long period of time by making easy consensus decisions, and so that usually means one or two things, that when we're making an investment decision in the business, there's usually something in the business that other inves…”
Corlett: TDM imposes no lockups and has never lost a client
“We never wanted to have a lockup with clients. We only want clients that want to be here. Having said that, we've never had a client that's pulled their money.”
TDM Growth Partners manages $1.5B for just 20 individual investors
“An Australia-based investment firm that manages a billion and a half dollars in growth companies ranging from early stage privates to publicly listed companies on behalf of just 20 individuals.”
Corlett: Concentrated 10-15% public stakes operate like illiquid marriages
“If you think like a long-term business owner, and especially with that one where we own 10 or 15% of the business, it may as well have been a private investment, like you are in a marriage. There was no way out. If we got that wrong, there was no easy way out.…”
Corlett: TDM made 65 investments and lost money only three times
“So we've made around 65 investments over the course of TDM's life, and we've lost money three times, and we've lost material money two out of those three times.”
Corlett: TDM holds an average 20% of its portfolio in cash
“And on average, we've held about 20% of the portfolio in cash.”
Corlett: Private companies make up over 50% of TDM's current portfolio
“Where the portfolio is skewed to at the moment is very much private companies where we can genuinely own those businesses for at least 10 years. We've got one or two board seats. We're really involved in supporting those companies, trying to add value and help…”
Corlett: TDM Growth Partners made no money for 7 to 8 years
“We basically didn't make any money out of TDM for years, like seven, eight years.”
Corlett: TDM's biggest investment mistake was retailer DavidsTea
“Well, the biggest investment mistake we made was David's Tea. It was a US listed business, a Canadian tea retailer, where we lost a hell of a lot of money.”
TDM Growth Partners never holds more than 15 portfolio companies
“Throughout the 16 or 17 year journey of TDM, we've never owned more than 15 businesses at any one point in time. And usually it's more like eight or 10.”
Corlett: TDM evaluates investments across four pillars including Helmer's Seven Powers
“We've got four pillars. One is growth opportunity. The second is competitive advantage, where we lean heavily on Hamilton Helmer's Seven Powers. People and culture is the third pillar, and valuation is the fourth.”
Corlett: TDM builds custom software to run individually managed accounts
“So we manage money in a very different way to most in that we have individually managed accounts for every single client. We don't have A fund where everyone is pulled together. In the 15 years, we haven't been able to find a software platform that can run tho…”