The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Daniel: Energy was one of our career's greatest contrarian value trades
“One of, probably, I would say the biggest for us was when Exxon got kicked out of the Dow for Salesforce.com, Us schmucks, everybody else in the world goes and buys Salesforce.com because it's going to be in relative indices and the like. We go, let's take a l…”
Collins: Seawolf Historically Shorted Banks for 15 to 20 Years
“And as long as I've been an investor and doing banks, I've hated banks, and there's been a lot of bad management teams, and so we historically, for 1520 years, had been short banks along other parts of financial services.”
Collins: Sophisticated analytical investing does not reconcile with QE-flooded markets
“Being a sophisticated, analytical investor to markets flooded with QE doesn't quite reconcile.”
Collins: Seawolf shorted First Republic, SVB, Signature, and Silvergate to zero
“We saw pretty clearly what was happening at First Republic and Silicon Valley and Signature and Silvergate, and we were short all those essentially to zero.”
Collins: Seawolf gained over 150% in 2022 despite a 30% drawdown
“Last year, we obviously were pretty decently plus 150% or a little higher than that, but we had a 30% drawdown at one point in the year.”
Vincent Daniel: Uranium and Nuclear Remain Core Investment Themes for Seawolf
“One of our favorite themes has been and continues to be uranium and nuclear.”
Collins: Seawolf bought Petrobras at 2x earnings for a 30% dividend yield
“We've been big holders of Petrobras recently, and that's one of our better stocks is that it was selling it again, one to two times earnings and giving yourself a 20 to 35% dividend yield.”
Daniel: Seawolf's Strategy Cannot Scale to Citadel or Millennium's Size
“Ted, I doubt it, because I don't think what we're doing here is infinitely scalable. Whereas I look at what a Millennium and Citadel have done, and I get the scale that they run at, and I think it's amazing. But the way we like to run money, we can't be big, b…”
Daniel: Major asset managers had zero energy stocks in top 50 holdings
“We took all the large asset management complexes. I think Wellington. Wellington, Fidelity, Neuberger, you name, Capri, you name them, and say, okay, let's figure out where their largest energy exposure is and what number it is in their portfolio. They're taki…”
Collins: Seawolf holds long gold as short against US balance sheet
“One of the things that looks like a short, but isn't is our long gold position.”
Collins: Seawolf fell apart after down 8% year and losing anchor investor in 2016
“It was our worst year we'd ever had, and we were down eight percent, and we had a very small, tight investor base, and the biggest one pulled, and then everyone got nervous, and then Danny decided to retire, and the whole thing fell flat.”