why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Zuckerman Is Not Convinced Renaissance Can Continue Historic Returns
“It does raise questions about the future, and I'm not convinced they can continue these kind of returns.”
Opinion
No Firm Executes Trades or Manages Slippage Better Than Renaissance
“There's no one who does a better job of figuring out when to trade, how to put on trades. They look like high frequency sometimes because they layer into positions. They know slippage. Early nineties, going back to Henry Laufer, early nineties, they were figur…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Trades Non-Intuitive Signals That Other Quants Avoid
“They also do things like they embrace non-intuitive signals, signals that they don't really know why they work, but they're scientifically proven. And Lots of other firms are uncomfortable with that approach. I don't want to overdo it here. That's not a bulk o…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons Made Bob Mercer Step Down Over Political Morale Backlash
“Simon's heard about it, and he was worried about morale, and he had to, and I write about a scene in the book, he had to go to Mercer and say, you got to step down, not necessarily leave the firm, but you can't run the firm because our morale is getting hurt, …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jim Simons Overrode Renaissance's Models Despite Public Claims
“Simons, when he gives speeches to you, he talks about the key is they never override the model, and they don't usually override the model, almost never do, but as I write in this story in the book, there are times when Simons has stepped in and said, guys, we'…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Ignores Company Identities Because Fundamental Narratives Are Distracting
“So they don't even know the companies involved. They find that distracting.”
Insight
Renaissance Avoided Wall Street Hires to Protect Intellectual Property
“He doesn't hire from wall street. He never has interest. If you worked on wall street, it's hard to get a job there. And that helps because when they leave, people don't usually go to wall street. So I don't know if I think he stumbled onto this. I don't think…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Is Not HFT, Holding Positions Two Days on Average
“We're talking on average about two days, and people lump them in with high frequency and they're not, but it's not to suggest they do it as they do it back then, but we're talking a few days on average, sometimes less, sometimes more, moments to months is how …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Uses Self-Teaching Machine Learning for Unexplainable Trades
“Machine learning is at the heart of the firm in modern times, and they were making trades without realizing why they were making the trades. The system teaches itself”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Shares One Unified Codebase Unlike Two Sigma
“It's also the case that they are much more collegial. They work together. It's an open system. Everyone can see the code as opposed to other technology firms, other hedge funds, and there are many different models. So you look at like a two sigma, my understan…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Has Accurate Financial Data Dating Back to the 1700s
“They do have better data than everybody else. People are catching up. It's not as much an advantage anymore, but they've got stuff going back to the 1700. That's accurate and gives them patterns that people don't necessarily see.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jim Simons Did Not Develop Most Renaissance Algorithms Himself
“In some ways I was surprised that he didn't come up with the algorithms most of the time, but he's great at asking questions and prodding and pushing. And have you considered this? You might want to try this approach. So people internally say his genius is man…”
Opinion
Early Renaissance Trading Was Essentially Sophisticated Technical Analysis
“What they were doing wasn't so different from technical analysis. I mean, we all sort of poo poo, and we kind of look at it as alchemy and hocus pocus, but they saw themselves as maybe more sophisticated, more scientific approach to technical analysis in that …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
A Static S&P 500 Code Glitch Blocked Renaissance's Equity System
“He found this glitch. He found a screw up on the part of Bob Mercer, who was a super duper programmer, but he had messed up. There's a number that wasn't updating. It was an S&P 500 number that was static. And it was really more their hedging and their offsett…”
Opinion
Jim Simons's Dual Quant and People Skills Drove Returns
“I think that's part of the reason why the returns have been so ridiculous is that he's a unique breed. He could do both, the quant side, the mathematics side, but also the personal and relate to people and manage people.”
Assertion Supported
Medallion Fund Uses Leverage Sometimes Reaching 10 to 1
“And they use leverage on top of that, sometimes as much as 10 to one or more, depending on the opportunities and such.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Henry Laufer Was the Key Figure Behind Early Renaissance Models
“Henry Laufer was the key guy. So he was a mathematician, a very quiet, humble, really super smart, well respected, and almost acclaimed in that field. And he's the one who came up with different approaches, things like days of the week, comparing what trades w…”
Assertion Supported
Renaissance Has Generated Over $100 Billion in Lifetime Trading Profits
“If you add it all up, it's over a hundred billion dollars over the course of their lives, seven billion a year before everything.”
Assertion Supported
Renaissance Medallion Generated 66% Annual Pre-Fee Returns
“They've got these returns, 66% a year before fees. Only 39% after fees, yeah, after their five and 44 fees.”
Opinion
Mauboussin: Discretionary managers cannot compete with quants on short-term horizons
“Natural language processing and computers and so forth will allow some parts of the market to be very efficient in the short run. You can make shorter term predictions. And that will probably make that aspect of the market more efficient. And by the way, as a …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jim Simons Gave Renaissance Team a Six-Month Ultimatum on Equities
“Simon's almost pulled the plug. He gave his guys six months, and he goes, guys, that's it. We're gonna pull the plug. I'll give you six more months.”
Assertion Supported
Roughly 100 of Renaissance's 300 Employees Hold PhDs
“What I mean by that is they're not just PhDs, and yet they have a hundred out of like 300 people there, their PhDs. These are people that are groundbreaking scientists, physicists, astronomers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Holds 4,000 to 5,000 Long and Short Equity Positions
“So today, and it's not so dissimilar from what it was back then, today it's about four or 5000 stocks that are long, four or 5000 stocks that are short.”
Assertion Supported
Jim Simons Hired Alan Greenspan as an Early Consultant
“He hired this young economist as a consultant named Alan Greenspan, and he had his red phone that went off when news broke and they would try to beat everybody else in trading kind of thing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Renaissance Employees Sign 30-Page Non-Disclosure Agreements
“Listen, they signed thirty-page non-disclosures internally, so it's weird for him to be talking to me”
Assertion Supported
Medallion Fund Has Been Employee-Only Since Around 2003
“Medallion has been really only Jim Simons and his employees since around 2003. They kicked the last people out.”
Assertion Supported
Early Simons-Baum Algorithm Cornered the Maine Potato Market
“And they developed the system, an automated type system, early trading model, and it cornered the market for Maine potatoes.”