The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ivascyn: Fed rates at 5% will trigger massive loan downgrades
“If we see even moderate declines in EBITDA over the course of the next few quarters with the fed at five percent and gosh, six percent would be a real challenge. We think a massive amount of that opportunity set is going to be open and subject to potential dow…”
Ivascyn: Green transition and geopolitics will drive structural inflation and desynchronized growth
“In the last few years, we've talked about a world where There's going to be less synchronized growth cycles where inflation is going to be more of a challenge going forward, perhaps structurally because of some of the physical investment necessary, particularl…”
Ivascyn: PIMCO expects US core inflation in high 2% range by year-end
“In the spread sectors, our base case economic view is reasonably constructive. U.S. Inflation heading back down to the high two level on the core side at the end of the year. Based on recent constructive economic data, slow growth, basically a fifty-fifty chan…”
Clarke notes alternative asset management is consolidating like traditional managers did
“A lot of things I see them do are things that the alternative industry is going towards because the alternative industry is scaling quickly. The consolidation of relationships is happening. It's very much following the blueprint of what things were like back i…”
Clarke reveals institutional fundraising requires a 15-to-1 conversation-to-ask ratio
“The conversation to ask ratio is about 15 to one. 15 conversations to one ask.”
Ivascyn: Portfolio managers tend to underappreciate extreme outcome probabilities
“There's just a natural tendency for people in our seats to underappreciate the probability of extreme outcomes.”
Ivascyn: Retail fund redemption gates signal rare forced selling opportunities
“Gates going up on retail products that were perceived to be much more liquid than they were. Explicit strategies that have gates that need to open over a fixed timeframe where they must sell over the course of a short period of time and where they're holding e…”
Ivascyn: PIMCO's 2014 transition was more challenging on business than portfolios
“The transition in 2014 was challenging on the portfolio management side. I think it was even more challenging on the business side.”
Ivascyn: Junior investors should manually calculate math that computers automate
“Do some of the math that the computers are doing for you. It stinks now. It's going to drive you crazy. It's going to pay dividends, I promise, later on in one's career.”
Sonnenshein: Grayscale is the PIMCO or Vanguard of digital currencies
“So Grayscale is the world's largest digital currency asset manager, and so Grayscale is to digital currencies, maybe what PIMCO is to bonds or Vanguard is to indices.”
Glidden: PIMCO beat equity benchmarks via derivatives and bond portfolios
“It's really hard to beat equity indices by picking stocks in a constrained manner. But what PIMCO did, they pair an S and P 500 derivative on top of a bond portfolio. So then they get some alpha, some duration, some credit, and they beat the index that way and…”
Ivascyn: PIMCO shifted duration from record lows to near-neutral positioning
“We have taken our duration higher. About 18 months or so ago, we were running near the historically lowest level within our duration range, and as markets have become more attractive just from a rates perspective, we've taken that all the way up to neutral dur…”
Ivascyn: PIMCO temporarily kicked him off mortgage desk early in career
“When I was having a rough time in the mortgage desk, it was really rough to the point where they wanted to kick me off the desk, and they did for a while. They kicked me over into the currency space, which wasn't the most glamorous position at PIMCO at the tim…”