The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Overlook limits its portfolio to 22 names, forcing sales for new ideas
“If you're really limited to 22 names, something's, if something's gotta get in the portfolio, you're gonna go shoot something.”
Superior businesses self-finance growth and maintain debt-free balance sheets
“Superior businesses have free cash flow. They generate cash. They have a large moat. They have high returns on investment, whether you return on equity, operating return, however you want to do it. They largely have debt free balance sheets, and they're self-f…”
Overlook pivoted to put the bulk of its capital into China A-shares
“But now, four years ago, we really pivoted and put the, what's today, the bulk of our money into China, particularly A shares.”
Dam depreciation schedules artificially distort China Yangtze Power's P/E multiple
“CYPC or China Yangtze Power had debt. Well, it should have debt. If there ever was a business on Earth that should have debt, that's it. But likewise, it depreciates its dams over 26 and a half years, but they're going to last over a 150 years, so that's wrong…”
Overlook exits markets when macro indicators like loan-to-deposit ratios flash red
“The other reason we sell is when the macroeconomic conditions that I talked about earlier, LD ratios, current accounts, fast loan growth, no Forex reserves. When those flash red, we get out of Dodge.”
Systematic rebalancing removes emotion from selling and preserves capital
“Selling is an intensely emotional time. It's much more controversial than buying. And that's where rebalancing is so perfect because, and I'm so thankful for Charlie Ellis for teaching me this, but it's a completely unemotional event. But, you know, as stocks …”
Overlook prohibits discussing a stock without completing a full financial forecast
“I have a policy that I don't want to talk about a company until I or one of my colleagues has done full financial forecast on the business.”
Overlook liquidated all Southeast Asian consumer stocks upon reaching 30x PE
“We had had a lot of consumer stocks in Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, and whatnot. And they all got up to 30 times earnings, and I kind of don't know how to make money from 30 to 40 PE, so we literally, we sold them all. Literally within six month time, we built u…”
Overlook bought Kingboard at 2.5x and Café de Coral at 6x P/E
“October in 1998, so right towards the end, we had just raised thirty million, so taking us from forty million back up to 50, 60, seventy million. And within one week, we found two companies in Fosan, Hong Kong. Kingboard Chemical at about two and a half times …”
Overlook cuts management fees only after good years to avoid signaling weakness
“And what I do is I cut after good years. After bad years, I don't cut. I don't want to show a sign of weakness.”
Fund managers must offer radical transparency to investors during bear markets
“I have created what you call the roadmap for a bear market, so calling every single investor more transparency, more discussion, more You know, give them the detail and the transparency through the portfolio. You can't hide. There's no denying I just kicked th…”
Overlook's portfolio dropped from $120M to $40M during the Asian Financial Crisis
“I think at the peak, we turned a 120 into about 40 million. We turned about a hundred and twenty million into 40. We were down 45 and then down to like another 20. 25 before it finally just from exhaustion turned.”
Overlook's largest LP suffered a 60% drawdown before making hundreds of millions
“Well, my largest investor left right before it really hit in June of I replaced him, and then calmly took my new largest investor down by 60%, but then they came back in with additional capital, and, you know, we made them hundreds of millions of dollars after…”