The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marks: In fixed income, avoiding losers makes winners take care of themselves
“If we avoid the losers, the winners take care of themselves. That's our official motto. And that's the right way to think about fixed income.”
Lasry: Mega-firms like Ares and Oaktree now rely on bank leverage
“What you're finding is the larger firms, whether it's Aries, Oaktree, will go out and end up doing these bilateral deals, and they'll end up using the leverage from a bank To generate the return. So I think, I would tell you, 10 years ago, people didn't really…”
Caesars creditors achieved above-par recoveries across debt tranches in restructuring
“You're talking about there was a 66 cent settlement for the second liens, but that came with equity options that ultimately took that above par. For the first liens, they were paid out at par plus these convertible preferred that brought that well above par. T…”
Apollo, KKR, and Oaktree Lack Meaningful Differentiation in Distressed Debt
“Is Apollo and KKR and Oak Tree, what's the difference? And the answer is, there's not a lot of a difference.”
Marks: Lower Underwriting Standards Allow Competitors to Outbid Disciplined Investors
“That still presents a big problem because if you want to apply high standards and somebody else has lower standards, then they can bid more for a given deal.”
Marks: Public markets grade companies daily without understanding them
“We were semi-public from O seven to 12, and then public from 12 to 19, and people would say, how is that? I'd say, well, it's fine, except that every day you get a report card from somebody who doesn't know your business that well, called the market.”
Friedman: Oaktree Outpaced Early Canyon by Targeting Institutional Asset Allocation Boxes
“I remember when our good friends, Bruce Karsh and Howard Marks left Trust Company in the West to start Oak Tree and almost instantly had more capital than we did, or at least as much, and we had started a few years earlier, and part of it was that they underst…”
Apollo aligned with Elliott and GSO to pressure junior creditors
“They go into bankruptcy with this deal with Elliott. They very quickly get a deal with the GSO group, and that is supposed to create all kinds of pressure on the most junior debt holder, which is the Oak Tree Appaloosa second lead bondholders.”
Howard Marks: Oaktree records remedial debt exchanges as defaults
“When we do what Sheldon Stone called a remedial exchange, we mark that down as a default.”
Samuels: Oaktree floated 6% in its IPO and founders cut equity sub-15%
“They thoughtfully saw the need to begin transitioning ownership, and they had a number of liquidity events, including selling a percentage to clients and then to institutional investors via private placement, and then ultimately via an IPO, and they floated si…”