The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Daniel: Multi-managers like Citadel are new shadow banks relying on Fed bailouts
“So I really, truly believe that they are the new shadow banking system, that whenever something goes awry, there's a reason why Millennium hired who they hired, why Citadel hired who they hired, to make sure that when the calamity occurs, they call the Fed for…”
Multi-manager hedge fund platforms consume 80% of their gross alpha in fees
“The EROC is terrible. And another way to think about it is, of the total gross alpha, how much do they keep? It's about 80%. We get 20% of the alpha. The alpha's huge. Absolutely huge. But we could never get comfortable with only getting 20%.”
Bobby Jain: Multi-manager hedge funds are effectively bank prop desks
“The multi-managed industry was the prop desks. It's not that different. The culture shock of moving from CS to Millennium was not that high at all. It was the same thing. A lot of it was the same people, as there was a transfer of people from the prop desks to…”
Seides: Major private equity platforms will acquire deal teams within five years
“I'd be very surprised if you don't see one of the larger private equity players try to grow through acquiring teams. They are long capital and short origination or dealmaking capability relative to the capital they could command. So it does make sense that if …”
Millennium's multi-decade track record statistically disproves efficient markets
“It's in decades, not in single digit years with hundreds of different groups on board. And it would be impossible statistically to think that that's random at this point. Let's put it that way. They continue to do well.”
Jain: Multi-manager hedge fund sector was tiny in 2016-2017 led only by Millennium and Citadel
“There was a big talent war in 2017 to 2022. Interest rates were zero. The whole multi-manager industry was tiny in 2016, 17, when Millennium and Citadel were really the two big ones that were managing third party capital.”
Daniel: FrontPoint's subprime trades would get PMs fired at modern Citadel
“Because I can imagine if someone took what we were doing way back when and put it in a Millennium slash Citadel native IDEO model, we'd probably be fired on the spot.”
Daniel: Seawolf's Strategy Cannot Scale to Citadel or Millennium's Size
“Ted, I doubt it, because I don't think what we're doing here is infinitely scalable. Whereas I look at what a Millennium and Citadel have done, and I get the scale that they run at, and I think it's amazing. But the way we like to run money, we can't be big, b…”
Craib: Numerai operates as an AI-driven version of Millennium Management
“I talk about Numerize being a kind of AI version of Millennium. Millennium, they do not have all the same people they had 20 years ago working at Millennium. They have a totally dynamic system of PMs coming in and out, and that's how year over year they've pro…”
Multi-manager platforms like Millennium have massive advantage in recruiting talent
“I think that means as of now, kind of the big market leader is in the big brands like the millenniums of the world have a pretty big edge because the person who wants to raise a hundred million dollar fund has a very difficult time doing that themselves, but M…”
Jain: Millennium evaluated portfolio risk minute by minute
“One of the things that you also learn in the banking sector is we're heavily marked to market. Millennium was one notch further, marked a minute. Why did we lose money last minute? Let's see if we could do something better about that.”
BAM is still building its quantitative trading business and infrastructure
“The quant businesses there, for example, are very developed, whereas we're in the process of building out a quant business. So they have the advantage of having that P&L stream where we don't yet, and they have the infrastructure for it where we're building.”
Craib: Millennium Management thrives by combining numerous uncorrelated strategies
“One of the reasons Millennium works is because they can get strategies that are uncorrelated, and that's what boosts the sharp. They have so many different strategies that are all uncorrelated, it's starts to become very hard to have a down year.”