The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jain: AI is powerful, but infrastructure economics are structurally bad
“Our view is that this is a powerful technology, but the economics are really bad. And time is not a friend. So if you're trading here, different matter. But the economics are not good economics.”
Jain: GQG holds almost zero exposure to tech and semiconductors today
“Today, for example, in 12 months now, we have almost nothing in semiconductors. We have almost nothing in tech.”
Jain: Position sizing should follow credit analyst logic, not equity conviction
“The sizing should be based on how a credit analyst would think. You can't have a very large position in monoline business, which operates a very narrow niche. Can't do it. So if you think about how does S&P would give AAA, it would never give AAA to an E&P com…”
Jain: GQG's research team is half journalists hired to criticize investments
“Now we have an equal amount of journalists and traditional analysts. Their job is to take the opposite view by default. Journalists are pretty good at that. I've learned a lot hanging out with journalists. Half the team is journalists who basically criticize e…”
Jain: Established software at 10-12x earnings shows strong growth and lock-in
“Look at software today. We feel that it's a very intriguing area. These established businesses, but 10, 12 times earnings and folks feel they're completely going out of business. There's no sign of that. Not only that, they're growing 20% in some cases, and yo…”
Jain: Hedge funds charge too much in today's highly efficient markets
“Fees, I think what's the biggest problem in hedge funds? They charge too much. There's only so much juice in the game. These are efficient markets. It's not like seventies. Buffett can do whatever sitting, reading Moody's manual and pick up stock two times ear…”
Jain: GQG bought Petrobras at a 35% dividend yield
“Petrobras, which we owned in a big way in the last five years, when we bought it was a 35% dividend deal. Today it's a 12% dividend deal, a 75 dollar oil. It's six times earnings.”
Jain: GQG Partners avoids using sector specialist analysts
“First of all, we don't have any specialists, even in the traditional analyst pool, which is a classic buy side and the non-traditional, non-traditional journalists basically, and they go wherever.”
Jain: Targeting high hit rates causes investors to miss multi-baggers
“The reason was because when you have a high hit rate, the problem is you have a high bar on what comes in. So you also miss a lot of multi-baggers for that reason. You actually lower the hit rate because then you have a small position.”
Jain: Long-only investors easily become lazy and rationalize underperformance
“In the long-only world, and I operate in the long-only world, is to become lazy. This business is fine, long-term, we'll all be okay. Because you can always find facts that support your opinion at that point. If the market is telling you you're wrong, you gott…”
Jain: Wall Street money center bank valuations are at 25-year highs
“That's what we don't own in U.S. Banks. If you look at large Wall Street money center banks, they're all trading at some of the highest valuations on a price to book or price to revenue in some 25 years.”
Jain: Great track records alone do not attract asset management capital
“The whole notion that we have great track record and people will come, that doesn't work that way. A lot of money managers don't have client servicing aspect in that.”
Jain: GQG Partners invested nearly $10 billion into software last month
“In last month, we put almost ten billion dollars to work in software.”
Jain: GQG dumped its 15% semiconductor position at market lows in 2022
“In summer of twenty-twenty-two, we started buying semiconductors, and we had no exposures. I felt like, great job, and we walk on water. In October, this whole thing heated up between US and China, the restrictions, and the stocks went free-fall. They got very…”
Jain: Financial models need operational precision, not arbitrary 15% growth assumptions
“Which was one of the biggest learning experiences you forget as an analyst is that things have to be in a little more precise manner than simply putting in a model, or you grow at 15% next five years, and we all live happily ever after.”
Jain: GQG Partners limits offerings to four core products with one team
“We don't launch multiple products, four core products, same process, same team.”
Jain: GQG bans personal trading; his net worth is in client funds
“We don't allow any personal trading here. Everybody has significant skin in the game. And I understand people have sometimes different views. I've had almost all of my net worth out value GQG in the products that clients would consume. Same exact vehicles.”
Jain: GQG Partners will never set AUM or margin targets
“When we went public, in my first letter as the largest shareholder of the company, I specifically wrote two things. We will never have AEM targets, and we never have margin targets, so that nobody's confused.”
Jain: GQG holds 30 to 35 names with 50% in top 10
“There's a long tail, but if you look at the U.S. Book, it's typically around 30, 35 names. The top 10 would make up just about half of the book. That's true for global and others, too.”
Jain: GQG cut tech exposure in 2021 and re-entered in 2023
“We exited twenty-twenty-one extremely underweight technology.
Our view is that industry was overrunning, if you look at semiconductor, et cetera.
That turned out to be the right call.
We re-entered as we saw the impact of ChatGPT in early days.
So in twenty-tw…”