The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Corre: Spinoffs No Longer Provide Reliable Long Alpha but Create Dispersion
“That opportunity set is no longer as reliable source of alpha. It's actually still a very, very reliable source of dispersion, But there are good shorts along with the good longs.”
Corre: Creditor-on-creditor violence will decline in a true distress cycle
“I'm optimistic that that will get somewhat less violence if we see a real distress cycle”
Corre: Multi-Manager Pods Have Compressed Friendly Merger Arbitrage Spreads
“The pod shops in merger arbitrage have become a very, very important player. Some of them do some amount of event-driven equities, but I think it's much, much more constrained because of the market neutrality that they run. But I think the biggest impact, I wo…”
Corre: Event-driven investing now requires fundamental analysis, not just event dynamics
“Now, I think partially because of the rise of passive and quant, partially because the Darwinian process has weeded out a lot of the alpha donors, it's not as simple as that anymore. You have to be much more focused on both the event dynamics, but also the fun…”
Corre: Offsetting alpha shorts with longs clarifies portfolio construction and alpha attribution
“We do alpha shorting, and when we do alpha shorting, we buy things long against it for the same reason. It's much cleaner from a portfolio construction perspective. It's also much cleaner from judging the quality of the position and the alpha generation of the…”
Corre: Bespoke Alternative Data Faces Less Competition in Event-Driven Equities
“What we find on the event driven side is that if you start doing bespoke work around situations that aren't going to be Obviously, the off the shelf providers, we can generate real opportunities, whether it's creating our own custom index from web scrapes of t…”
Corre: Governors Lane Bought Luckin Coffee in Single to Low-Double Digits
“We bought a decent size position when the stock was trading low double digits, high single digits, and we did a lot of the work I was describing, a lot with the alternative data, some surveys, we spoke to franchisees in China about it, and we've sold a decent …”
Corre: Multiples Are Merely Cash Flow Proxies, Not Standalone Buy/Sell Signals
“I think people fetishize multiples. And so often you hear people tell you, oh, the multiple is so low, we should be long, or the multiple is so high, we should be short. And multiples are a very reasonable proxy for the market's estimate of the net present val…”
Corre: The hedge fund graveyard is filled with firms that grew too big
“I want to grow responsibly, recognize the fact that the graveyard Of hedge funds is filled with hedge funds that did what we did and got too big and to grow with discipline in a way that allows us to continue to maintain the culture that has contributed to our…”
Corre: Governors Lane is buying mispriced Bausch + Lomb debt
“We're participating in the transaction that Bausch and Loma's doing. We think the rating is lower than it should be. It's rated B-one, in part because they have this dynamic with their old parent Valiant, or what is now called Bausch. We think the pricing is r…”
Corre: CLO Slowdown Is Creating Greater Concessions in Large Bank Debt
“Essentially the bank debt market, leverage loan market, I should say, has been really dominated by the CLOs. And that algorithm right now is broken. So CLO formation is harder now than it was before. There's less demand for the triple A tranches of CLOs. So wh…”