The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Future Fund Turned Over Half of Its $200B Portfolio in Three Years
“We manage about two hundred and sixty five billion Aussie across seven funds. The future fund, which is the higher risk fund, is a bit over 200, and we've changed half of it in the last three years.”
Raphael Arndt Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 20:20 Raphael Arndt – The Death of Traditional Portfolio Construction? (EP.365)
Assertion Supported
Arndt: Future Fund Halted Equity Investing in 2007 on Negative Risk Premia
“And David Neal, when he was hired as CIO and the person who was in the head of strategy role at the time, Tony Day, came on board before I joined. And the very first thing they did was look at markets and say, we're not sure what's going on, but we think the e…”
Raphael Arndt Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 51:51 CIO Greatest Hits: Sovereign Wealth Funds – Raphael Arndt (Australia Future Fund)
Assertion Contradicted
Future Fund held 80% of its portfolio in cash when Lehman collapsed
“Fortuitously, and through some good decisions made by the people who were here before me, we were sitting with about 80% in cash when layman's went broke.”
Raphael Arndt Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 52:50 CIO Greatest Hits: Sovereign Wealth Funds – Raphael Arndt (Australia Future Fund)
Assertion Partly supported
Future Fund Held Approximately 80% in Cash When Lehman Brothers Collapsed
“Fortuitously, and through some good decisions made by the people who were here before me, we were sitting with about 80% in cash when layman's went broke.”
Raphael Arndt Sep 24, 2018 ▶ 53:33 Raphael Arndt – Australia's Sovereign Wealth Fund CIO (Capital Allocators, Episode 70)
Assertion Partly supported
Future Fund Deployed 20% Into Credit During 2008 Crisis, Returning 20%
“It was probably about 15 to 20% of the portfolio into credit over about three months. So it was quite a big decision, and clearly that decision paid off very well. Those initial investments returned above 20%.”
Raphael Arndt Sep 24, 2018 ▶ 54:55 Raphael Arndt – Australia's Sovereign Wealth Fund CIO (Capital Allocators, Episode 70)
Assertion Supported
Gilmore: Future Fund Benefited from 2008 Crisis Due to Low-Risk Entry
“The Future Fund has actually been one of the beneficiaries of the financial crisis because it had a low risk portfolio going into the crisis. So it had a lot of cash to invest when assets were very cheap.”
Stephen Gilmore Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 12:30 Stephen Gilmore – CalPERS' Total Portfolio Approach (EP.486)
Assertion Supported
Gilmore: NZ Super Uses a Reference Portfolio While Future Fund Does Not
“In the case of New Zealand Super, Turtle Portfolio Approach, they have a reference portfolio. Future Fund, Turtle Portfolio Approach, doesn't have a reference portfolio.”
Stephen Gilmore Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 16:23 Stephen Gilmore – CalPERS' Total Portfolio Approach (EP.486)
Assertion Supported
Arndt: Australia's Future Fund benchmark is inflation plus 4% to 5%
“We do have a benchmark from the government of inflation plus four to five percent over the long term that they've given us.”
Raphael Arndt Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 19:47 CIO Greatest Hits: Sovereign Wealth Funds – Raphael Arndt (Australia Future Fund)
Assertion Supported
Arndt: Future Fund achieved a 10-year Sharpe ratio of 1.3
“And so, we sort of think about volatility, but also Sharpe ratio, and it's a hard thing to measure, and there's all sorts of debates you could have about it, but in terms of our 10 year Sharpe ratio, it's about 1.3, which we think for a fund like ours is, is p…”
Raphael Arndt Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 1:02:52 CIO Greatest Hits: Sovereign Wealth Funds – Raphael Arndt (Australia Future Fund)
Assertion Supported
Arndt: Future Fund launched with A$60B, including A$50B cash
“Well, if you include all the inflows over a year or so, it was about sixty billion Australian dollars, of which about fifty billion was in cash, and about ten billion was in Telstra shares that were still in escrow, and were not allowed to be sold for two year…”
Raphael Arndt Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 10:56 CIO Greatest Hits: Sovereign Wealth Funds – Raphael Arndt (Australia Future Fund)
Assertion Partly supported
Future Fund Finances One-Third of All Australian Medical Research
“We don't just invest the Future Fund, which helps strengthen the Commonwealth Government's balance sheet and help to support the economy through COVID, but we also manage the Medical Research Future Fund that funds about a third of medical research in Australi…”
Raphael Arndt Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 40:50 Raphael Arndt – The Death of Traditional Portfolio Construction? (EP.365)
Assertion Supported
Future Fund started with A$60B including A$10B in escrowed Telstra shares
“Well, if you include all the inflows over a year or so, it was about sixty billion Australian dollars, of which about fifty billion was in cash, and about ten billion was in Telstra shares that were still in escrow, and were not allowed to be sold for two year…”
Raphael Arndt Sep 24, 2018 ▶ 10:38 Raphael Arndt – Australia's Sovereign Wealth Fund CIO (Capital Allocators, Episode 70)
Assertion Supported
Arndt: Future Fund Has No Clients, Marketing Needs, or Regulators
“We don't have members or clients. We don't have to do marketing. We're not regulated.”
Raphael Arndt Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 7:41 Raphael Arndt – The Death of Traditional Portfolio Construction? (EP.365)
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