The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Disclosure
Collins: Seawolf shorted First Republic, SVB, Signature, and Silvergate to zero
“We saw pretty clearly what was happening at First Republic and Silicon Valley and Signature and Silvergate, and we were short all those essentially to zero.”
Porter Collins Jul 3, 2023 ▶ 38:06 Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel - Big Shorts and Big Longs (Capital Allocators, EP.325)
Opinion
Falls: SVB faced a liquidity crisis while First Republic faced insolvency
“So in one case, it's probably more of a liquidity crisis, too much reliance on short-term funding, and in the other, it may have been more of a solvency crisis, real loan impairment.”
Amy Falls May 22, 2023 ▶ 9:19 Amy Falls – From Bonds to Boards to Leading Northwestern (Capital Allocators, EP.316)
Assertion Supported
Active venture capital fund entities have quadrupled from 1,000 to 4,000
“Samir over, he's running his own shop now, but when he was at First Republic, he used to track the number of funds that were out in the market. And it used to be A thousand. Like, that was always the number. Like, NVCA, National Venture Capital Association, al…”
Chris Douvos Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 13:45 Chris Douvos – The LP's Perspective from Ahoy Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 2 (Capital Allocators, EP.230)
Insight
Sub-$200M Businesses Reliant on Cheap Bank Debt Risk Rapid Insolvency
“Having a business that is entirely reliant on dirt cheap, consistent debt financing from a bank is really risky and particularly risky if you are sub two hundred million dollar market cap. So a small gust of wind, a small hiccup, and we saw this with SVB and F…”
Josh Kopowitz Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 9:58 Josh Koplewicz – Flexible Capital and Creative Structures at Thayer Street (EP.451)
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