The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Papic: Public market ESG is meaningless; real edge is in private markets
“Now, the problem I have, though, is that in the public markets, there's clearly this kind of rubber stamp of ESG that I think a lot of investors have already figured out is almost meaningless. Because you have these ESG indices that are like everybody but poor…”
Jain: Position sizing should follow credit analyst logic, not equity conviction
“The sizing should be based on how a credit analyst would think. You can't have a very large position in monoline business, which operates a very narrow niche. Can't do it. So if you think about how does S&P would give AAA, it would never give AAA to an E&P com…”
Jain: Exxon generates $50B cash flow vs AMD's $9B at comparable valuations
“Exxon is almost similar market cap as AMD. Depending on the oil prices, this year they generate probably fifty billion of clean free cash flow. AMD will be lucky if they generate nine.”
Daniel: Energy was one of our career's greatest contrarian value trades
“One of, probably, I would say the biggest for us was when Exxon got kicked out of the Dow for Salesforce.com, Us schmucks, everybody else in the world goes and buys Salesforce.com because it's going to be in relative indices and the like. We go, let's take a l…”
Steyer: Every company, even ExxonMobil, will eventually become a climate company
“Every company, Exxon, is going to be a climate company. No question about it.”
Farber: Exxon's Pioneer deal removed two of CrownRock's best potential buyers
“The flip side of that was the business had been so successful that we got to a size that very few companies could afford to bid in that process. And the deal that John was talking about with Exxon taking out Pioneer, that took two of our best buyers off the ta…”
With 8% ROEs, oil supermajors are terrible bellwethers for climate investment opportunities
“This is a group of companies that have had terrible returns on capital. They earned, you know, eight percent ROEs last year. This year is going to be worse. Exxon's down 40% in the last five years. Why are we waiting for them to be the bellwether that determin…”
Daniel: Major asset managers had zero energy stocks in top 50 holdings
“We took all the large asset management complexes. I think Wellington. Wellington, Fidelity, Neuberger, you name, Capri, you name them, and say, okay, let's figure out where their largest energy exposure is and what number it is in their portfolio. They're taki…”