The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Private credit BDCs are mislabeling industry concentrations in their loan portfolios
“Literally putting in every loan into Claude or ChatGBT to figure out what do they think it is. There has been some mislabeling of concentrations.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 42:12 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI Is in Year Three of a 20- to 30-Year Cycle
“We're, I think, in the very early days of AI. If ChatGPT is to AI as Netscape Navigator was, we're in year three of what should be a 20, 25, thirty-year really exciting cycle or trend.”
Gavin Baker Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 1:12:09 Gavin Baker – Truth-Seeking and Crossover Investing at Atreides (EP.489)
Disclosure
Sacerdote: Whale Rock bought Nvidia in January 2023 at 4x forward earnings
“And similarly, we loaded up on NVIDIA right after ChatGPT in January, 20, 23. We were buying NVIDIA at four times the earnings they're going to do this year.”
Alex Sacerdote Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 19:29 Top 5 of 2025: #4: Alex Sacerdote
Disclosure
MDT Advisers does not use LLMs or ChatGPT in investment modeling
“Large language models and ChatGPT specifically are not anything that we're presently making use of in our modeling.”
Daniel Mahr Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 46:28 Daniel Mahr – Glass Box Quant at MDT Advisers (EP.472)
Insight
Mahr: ChatGPT stock backtests are untrustworthy due to look-ahead bias
“When you're running a back test through the better part of the last decade, ChatGPT knows that Nvidia became a multi-trillion dollar company. ChatGPT knows what the mega trends were in the economy and the market over those timeframes. It's not realistic to tru…”
Daniel Mahr Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 46:58 Daniel Mahr – Glass Box Quant at MDT Advisers (EP.472)
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