The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Papic: China's household debt exceeds the US relative to disposable income
“So if you look at household debt as percent of disposable income in China, it's higher than that of the U.S.”
Papic: Only Two Emerging Market Macro Hedge Funds Exist Today
“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”
Papic: US-China yield divergence will favor carry trades in China
“So the yield divergence between US and China is going to favor carry trades in China because they're adopting far less stimulative policies.”
Papic: Russia built FX reserves to $550B and its biggest surplus since 2006
“Russia has built up a massive current account surplus, biggest since 2006. Their FX reserves are five hundred fifty billion. They've rebuilt them since 2014.”
Papic: Institutional allocators hold only ~2% China exposure versus 20-25% global GDP share
“Look, right now, from what we understand at Clocktower, the allocation to China is about two percent. For real money allocators, and it's like 20, 25% of global economy.”
Papic: Fed cut rates 100 bps while yields surged 100 bps
“And we saw a hundred basis point cut in the Fed funds rate, and a hundred basis point moving the yields higher, which hadn't happened since the eighties.”