The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Inker: Stock market volatility of 17% vastly exceeds fair value's 1%
“There is very, very little volatility to the underlying fair value. It's about one percent a year. And yet the market has a volatility of 17. And that's a mismatch that says there must be some predictability to the market”
Inker: US manufacturing productivity has been net negative since 2011
“Productivity growth has been net negative. We are less productive making stuff than we were in 2011.”
Inker: Pre-2020 value investing drought mirrors the 1994-1999 era
“2000 to 2002 was a wonderful period for value. The similarity to the 1994 to 1999 period is this has been another dreadful period for value as a strategy. We see that kind of on a individual stock level. It's also been a lousy period for valuation driven inves…”