Insight certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Acker: Buy hated biotech companies after trial setbacks if the drug works

Andy Acker · Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274) · Oct 6, 2022 · at 50:10

Andy Acker, healthcare portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, discusses his core contrarian investment philosophy when responding to clinical trial failures.

0:00 / 0:07exact quote · 7.7s
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“So it's really buying when a company is the most controversial, the most hated, but where you have high conviction that a product really works.”

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More from Andy Acker

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Acker: Wall Street drug launch estimates are wrong 90% of the time
“And what we've found again in more than 23 years of investing in health care is that the consensus estimates from Wall Street Are wrong about 90% of the time.”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 14:54 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Acker: Muscular dystrophy gene therapy could potentially launch by mid-2023
“There's been no disease-modifying therapy, and now we have a gene therapy that could be launching potentially by the middle of 2023.”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 9:47 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
Insight
Acker: A bad management team can destroy a great drug molecule
“Probably the biggest mistake that I've made in my career is underappreciating how important a good management team is, because if you have a great molecule and it meets a bad management team, you can destroy a tremendous amount of value just by making bad deci…”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 28:40 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
Assertion Supported
Acker: Biotech stocks fell 64% absolute and 75% relative in 2021-2022
“Between February of 2021 and June of 2022, we had one of the worst bear markets in biotech sector in history. So on an absolute basis, these stocks declined 64% and relative to the health care sector, they traded down about 75%.”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 21:45 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
Assertion Supported
Acker: Over 200 biotech companies traded below cash after the 2022 crash
“Now, after that, you get to a point where actually 200 different companies were trading below the levels of cash on their balance sheet. That's highly unusual. We've never seen that before, even going back to The global financial crisis and the bear market, th…”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 22:25 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
Assertion Supported
Acker: Small and mid-cap biotechs develop over 60% of new medicines
“Over 60% of the new medicines that reach the market today were developed by small and mid cap biotech companies.”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 35:36 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
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