Assertion certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Choe: Management stability shows little correlation with private equity investment success

Mike Choe · Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432) · Feb 17, 2025 · at 38:17

Mike Choe, CEO of Charlesbank Capital Partners, shares empirical insights from analyzing past private equity deals and their management turnover.

0:00 / 0:24exact quote · 24.0s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“Another one would be that we used to think that management stability would be very correlated with investment success, and we looked at changes in C-suite management, and there was really not a ton of correlation there, so I'd say that's been an insight that has caused us to be perhaps a little bit less fearful of making management changes when necessary or strengthening management teams.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Mike Choe

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Choe: Charlesbank found lower entry multiples correlate with weaker private equity returns
“And in our case, and we really had the data just to look at the hundred or so transactions in our history as a private equity firm, there was really no correlation. If there was one, it was a very weak negative correlation. So lower multiple investments tended…”
Mike Choe Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 38:41 Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Choe: 2021 leverage excesses will cause restructurings over coming years
“We think a lot of the leverage excesses of 21 are likely to result in first liability management exercises, LMEs, that will then involve some amount of restructuring over the next few years or so.”
Mike Choe Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 52:23 Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432)
Insight
Choe: Standard 5-Year LBO Models Promote Anchoring and Familiarity Biases
“We're using a highly flawed tool that actually promotes all kinds of predictable human biases. There's anchoring bias, there's familiarity bias, to make a decision that is inherently very difficult to make. Because what we're really doing is we are underwriter…”
Mike Choe Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 22:34 Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432)
Disclosure
Charlesbank Models Investments Using 10,000-Simulation 2-Year Monte Carlo Analysis
“We have, as a result, shifted all of our modeling to a homegrown proprietary tool that we call our two-year fan of outcomes. It's basically a fairly simplified Monte Carlo analysis. It runs 10,000 simulations of the two year forward future of any given investm…”
Mike Choe Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 23:32 Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Choe: Two-Year Pre-Tax Earnings Growth Strongly Predicts PE Investment Success
“When we ran our regression analysis, our ability to grow the pre-tax earnings of a company within the first two years of our ownership was highly correlated and very predictive of ultimate investment success, no matter how long the hold period was.”
Mike Choe Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 24:25 Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432)
Insight
Choe: Perceived PE Management Quality Is Mostly a Spurious Correlation
“You don't really know management quality when you first come to an investment. You actually develop your view of their quality depending on how that investment's going, so that's sort of a spurious correlation.”
Mike Choe Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 24:48 Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432)
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 700 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.