Tepper: Guru-driven macro forecasting is not repeatable or transferable
Jonathan Tepper · Jonathan Tepper - Variant Perception of Capitalism (Capital Allocators, EP.110) · Oct 7, 2019 · at 20:54
Jonathan Tepper, founder of Variant Perception, explains to Ted Seides why macro research must be built as an automated, systematic framework rather than relying on intuitive forecasters.
0:00 / 0:17exact quote · 17.6s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“I don't want to denigrate some of the gurus who I still admire, but I thought that that's not repeatable. They might be able to hire someone and train them and teach them, but it's probably like a one-off. And I thought surely the best thing to do is to create a system that could be run by an idiot, but could be run by someone perhaps who doesn't have that touch of genius or whatever it might be.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Jonathan Tepper
Tepper calls TransDigm's price-tripling aerospace model 'slightly parasitic'
“You have some like Transdime, for example, which relies on FAA certification and are pretty open about they triple the pricing when they purchase a little part, and they raise prices over six percent per year, regardless of what the underlying cost of producin…”
Tepper: Replicate expensive quality funds for 15bps using XLP, XLK, and XLV
“You can basically buy XLP, XLK, and XLV at 15 bibs and replicate with about 95% correlation a lot of these quality funds.”
Tepper: High corporate margins stem from pricing power, not efficiency
“That paper itself started tied the high profit margins to competition and pointed out that it's not because these firms are just that much better and more efficient. They're getting a higher return on assets and it comes from scale. Rather, they end up with pr…”
Tepper: Economic Inequality Stems from Lack of Competition, Not Capitalism
“What Piketty talked about certainly does happen, which is that you end up with an increase in inequality. And it doesn't come because there's a fatal flaw in capitalism. It comes because essentially there's not enough competition. Capitalism itself is not func…”
U.S. Antitrust Chief Makan Delrahim Was Once Google's Lobbyist
“Macon Dalrahim, for example, is the attorney general for antitrust in the US. He was Google's lobbyist for the double click acquisition.”
TransDigm Hikes Acquired Aircraft Component Prices by 500% to 700%
“A classic one that hedge funds love and that I think is horrific is Transtime. Basically, there's not competition because to get an FAA part approved takes a very long time, and so you and I can go and provide seat belts cheaper than Transtime, and anytime the…”