Dixon: Investors mistakenly impute logic onto noisy, random market moves
Chris Dixon · Chris Dixon – The Future of Blockchain at a16z (Capital Allocators, EP.172) · Jan 11, 2021 · at 1:05:46
Andreessen Horowitz GP Chris Dixon critiques post-hoc market narratives and argues that successful investing requires acknowledging how little is truly knowable or predictable.
0:00 / 0:39exact quote · 39.6s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“Imputing logic onto things that are probably noisy and random. My impression of a lot of investing is everything from, if you could watch CNBC and they say the market moved today because of X, Y, and Z, and in fact, it was probably moved because whatever some algorithmic trader bought did X, Y, and Z, and who knows what million other random things happened. And this happens in venture capital. It happens in every area of investment to impute some logic onto things that are actually much more complicated and hard to predict. And I think one of the hardest things to do in investing is to be kind of properly intellectually modest and realize that the vast majority of things you don't know.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Chris Dixon
Dixon: Interest rates and macro factors are irrelevant to early-stage VC
“People talk about interest rates. I don't think it's relevant to early stage venture capital, because again, it's like any exit would be 10 years away. And fundamentally to get there, it's just so much more Driven by the quality of the team and the ideas than …”
Dixon: Google and Facebook will become low-growth legacy giants like IBM
“I think they're very likely going to become like IBM and HP and just chugging along and not really doing much new innovative stuff. They'll still be around and they'll still have their services, but I think that their relevance and growth are limited.”
Dixon: a16z owns less than 5% of most Web3 networks
“Generally what we own, contrary to Jack Dorsey and others saying that we own web three, we generally own sub five percent of most of these networks.”
Dixon: Web3 payouts will pass Web2 payouts in next couple years
“I believe we'll see in the next couple of years, web three payouts past web two payouts.”
Dixon: Decentralized blockchain communities will build tomorrow's social networks
“A lot of the thesis we have with crypto blockchain is that a similar thing will happen with internet services in the same way that almost all software today is made by a group, a community of people who get together and build something. We think the same thing…”