Lending against ARR without equity upside is venture lending without warrants
Kieran Goodwin · Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494) · Mar 30, 2026 · at 37:32
Kieran Goodwin of Saba Capital discusses underwriting standards in private credit and loans issued to unprofitable enterprise software businesses.
0:00 / 0:01exact quote · 1.5s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“You're doing venture lending without warrants.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Kieran Goodwin
Non-traded BDCs recreate the structural asset-liability mismatches of the past
“Maybe we do a non-traded BDC, which was now up to 2018. That's where I was like, well, this is the original asset liability mismatch that you tried to cure by doing a drawdown fund because You might have all the investors looking for the exit, even though it's…”
Public BDCs show massive valuation discrepancies on identical syndicated club loans
“There's some obvious ones where you see, let's just say public BDCs that own the same club deal, the same loan. One BDC versus another, or two or three versus a fourth BDC, there's a massive variance, in a second lien especially, where you're like, wait, the f…”
Certain private credit loans drop from par to zero in one quarter
“Then you have micro situations where loans are getting marked from hundred to zero in one quarter.”
The software sector will experience a coming wave of debt defaults
“We're going to have a wave of defaults in the software space.”