Thomas Haugaard of Janus Henderson Investors details the quantitative framework his team uses to evaluate sovereign credit risk.
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“So we built a statistical model that identifies what explains ratings. It identifies around 85% of the entire variation.”
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More from Thomas Haugaard
Insight
Haugaard: Markets Overprice Improving Sovereigns by One to Two Rating Notches
“At the end of a positive rating story, we almost always found that the market is pricing one to two notches too much of a good story. So when credit risk is actually not going down anymore, there's a tendency for investors to stick with a good story for a litt…”
Thomas HaugaardDec 14, 2023▶ 22:24Thomas Haugaard - Hard Currency Emerging Markets Debt at JHI (EP.356)
Insight
Haugaard: Autocratic Regimes Score Lower on Governance and Carry Higher Risk
“It is very clear that in most cases where you have less democratic countries, you will also find that across the board, governance measures, institutions, regulatory quality, rule of law, in most cases, they are a lot lower. Which means that sovereign risk is …”
Thomas HaugaardDec 14, 2023▶ 27:20Thomas Haugaard - Hard Currency Emerging Markets Debt at JHI (EP.356)
Disclosure
Haugaard: Janus Henderson Ignores Treasury Yields to Focus Solely on Spreads
“We are not focused on that. We focus entirely on the EM side of the asset class. So we focus entirely on the risk premium, the spread that you get on top of US treasury yields. And we focus entirely on figuring out where that is going at the country level.”
Thomas HaugaardDec 14, 2023▶ 11:46Thomas Haugaard - Hard Currency Emerging Markets Debt at JHI (EP.356)
Opinion
Haugaard: Middle-Income Emerging Markets Have Adopted Developed Market Policy Frameworks
“There are plenty of those where you've seen a significant transition to policy setups that are very similar to developed markets, and that is not something that reaches a lot of headlines, but it is something that has been happening in the past 20 years, I wou…”
Thomas HaugaardDec 14, 2023▶ 15:05Thomas Haugaard - Hard Currency Emerging Markets Debt at JHI (EP.356)
Insight
Haugaard: EM Debt Markets Price Sovereign Ratings 1.5 to 2 Years Ahead
“The dynamics of that relationship is market is forward looking one and a half, two years. And this is a stylized fact. There are plenty of deviations from that depending on specific economic development phases. But in general, the market is forward looking by …”
Thomas HaugaardDec 14, 2023▶ 21:45Thomas Haugaard - Hard Currency Emerging Markets Debt at JHI (EP.356)
Insight
Haugaard: Regulatory Quality Is the Second Best Predictor of Sovereign Ratings
“And the second most important variable to understand where ratings are going is regulatory quality. That captures the perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement Policies and regulations.”
Thomas HaugaardDec 14, 2023▶ 25:50Thomas Haugaard - Hard Currency Emerging Markets Debt at JHI (EP.356)
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