Seides: Massive Inflows Will Compress Private Credit Returns to Roughly 6%
Ted Seides · Year in Review 2025 (EP.478) · Dec 22, 2025 · at 17:38
Ted Seides argues that wealth investors are anchored to peak post-2022 private credit yields of 12–13% while incoming capital will drive returns to about half that level.
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“Where I think there is a challenge is when all this money comes in, the one thing it does for sure is compress spreads. I don't think the people buying in the wealth channel have the right understanding of what returns they should expect. There was a pocket of time coming out of 2022 where these corporate unlevered loans could yield 12 or 13%. I think people are anchored to that when the actual return is probably half that.”
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