Insight certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Climate policy must prepare for the worst-case scenario of planetary fragility.

Bob Litterman · Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141) · Jun 15, 2020 · at 17:38

Risk manager Bob Litterman discusses the quantitative carbon pricing and climate risk modeling he developed with Ted Seides.

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“So we don't know what the fragility of the planet is right now. It could be very robust. It could be very fragile. Today, we have to plan our policy in a way that prepares us for, you know, the worst case, which is a very fragile environment.”

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More from Bob Litterman

Opinion
Senate Republicans are the primary carbon pricing obstacle but are shifting rapidly.
“Well, it's Republicans in the Senate, let's be perfectly honest. I think that's changing quickly, let's just put it there.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 26:50 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bob Litterman predicts the global economy faces decades of low oil prices.
“I think we're in for, you know, decades of low oil prices.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 33:03 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Disclosure
Bob Litterman's climate risk models price carbon above $100 per ton.
“What I found when I looked into this was that the number that came out of the model, it was hard to get it down below, say, a hundred dollars a ton.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 14:14 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Insight
Delaying global carbon pricing by three years adds 0.1°C to peak warming.
“For every three years that we delay pricing emissions, the maximum temperature, the best case, or let's say the optimal solution is another 10th of a degree onto that expected maximum temperature.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 20:29 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Global warming will exceed 2°C without aggressive carbon pricing within a decade.
“Bottom line is that we can expect that temperature to get above two degrees if we don't act very soon in the next, say, decade.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 21:20 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Opinion
The low-carbon transition will occur much faster than markets currently expect.
“Really my argument is that the transition to a low carbon economy is going to be faster than what's built into market expectations.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 33:48 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
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