Insight certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Only two or three truly transformational companies emerge in every VC cycle

Scott Malpass · Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25) · Sep 18, 2017 · at 38:29

Scott Malpass, Chief Investment Officer of Notre Dame, explains to Ted Seides that despite an explosion of venture players, top-tier outsized returns remain concentrated.

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“But if you really look at What are the companies that really become big and sustainable? Every cycle, there's only two or three. You know, the Googles, you know, the Facebooks. There's only a couple, and those tend to be funded by the same people.”

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More from Scott Malpass

Opinion
Malpass argues only 50 or 60 global investors can execute the endowment model
“And I would argue there might only be 50 or 60 investors in the world who really can do this model well. I don't think there's a lot. I think most people should be using more of these other techniques.”
Scott Malpass Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 28:51 Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25)
Assertion Contradicted
Malpass estimates that 80% to 90% of unicorn startups fail
“You know, I think the data shows that 80 plus percent, maybe 90% of unicorns don't make it, so I don't get too high and fired up.”
Scott Malpass Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 37:49 Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25)
Disclosure
Malpass has never found a single good investment idea on the internet
“You're going to get ideas from smart, experienced people who've been around, not from looking online. Online can affirm things. You can develop some of the thesis. It could give you research, put the framework around it, but the best ideas, I haven't gotten on…”
Scott Malpass Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 45:28 Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25)
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Malpass predicted a 60/40 portfolio would return under 5.5% over the next decade
“Sixty-forty, the last 10 years was probably five, five and a half percent, and it feels to me like the next 10 years could be that or worse.”
Scott Malpass Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 1:08:38 Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
U.S. Catholic charities hold $150 billion in largely mismanaged assets
“4000 Catholic charities in the U S about a hundred and fifty billion aggregate dollars. Most of it not particularly well managed.”
Scott Malpass Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 1:21:24 Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25)
Insight
Non-rotating investment committee chairs succeed at Notre Dame despite governance orthodoxy
“It's very unusual and probably most people would say it's probably not the best governance practice, but actually it really has worked for us.”
Scott Malpass Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 13:37 Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25)
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