Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 93% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Broyer: Austin, Dallas, and Tampa have not led long-term rent growth

James Breuer · Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475) · Dec 4, 2025 · at 22:57

James Broyer argues that institutional investors over-index on population growth rather than rent growth and supply constraints.

0:00 / 0:09exact quote · 9.9s

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“If you step back and look at the data, you look at over the past 10 years, 20 years, it's not the Austins, the Dallases, the Tampas of the country that are performing the best Because we're solving for rent growth.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Over the past 10 to 20 years, high-population-growth markets like Austin, Dallas, and Tampa have not been the best performing multifamily markets for rent growth.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Historical multifamily market analytics from major commercial real estate analytics providers (including RealPage, Yardi Matrix, CoStar, and CBRE Econometric Advisors) substantiate the claim. Over both the 10-year (2015-2025) and 20-year (2005-2025) periods, high-population-growth Sun Belt markets such as Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Tampa were not the top-performing metropolitan areas for cumulative or annualized rent growth. While these markets experienced significant population and job inflows, highly elastic housing supply and record construction completions systematically diluted long-term rent appreciation compared to supply-constrained coastal gateway markets (e.g., Greater Boston, New York Metro, Northern California) and steady, low-volatility Midwestern/Mid-Atlantic markets (e.g., Cincinnati, Columbus, Kansas City).

RealPage and Yardi Matrix historical datasets confirm that over multi-decade spans (2005-2025), top cumulative rent growth was concentrated in supply-constrained coastal metros and steady Midwestern markets rather than high-supply Sun Belt boomtowns.
RealPage Market Analytics reported in October 2025 that out of the top 50 US multifamily markets, the markets maintaining the most consistent long-term positive annual rent growth from 2020 through 2025 were predominantly in the Midwest (led by Cincinnati, Columbus, and Kansas City), whereas Sun Belt markets experienced severe volatility and subsequent rent contractions.
By late 2025, massive supply deliveries pushed year-over-year rent growth deeply negative in Austin (-5.2% to -5.4%), Phoenix (-4.1%), Denver (-3.9%), and Dallas-Fort Worth (-1.7%), while coastal and Midwestern markets led national rent growth.

Checked against

[1] bamcapital.com [2] costar.com [3] realpage.com [4] costargroup.com [5] realpage.com [6] rise48equity.com [7] realpage.com [8] realpage.com

historical rent growth 2004 to 2024 by metro multifamily RealPage multifamily rent growth 10 20 years Austin Dallas Tampa best performing CoStar Yardi RealPage multifamily rent growth Sunbelt vs coastal midwest 10 20 year historical returns CoStar Yardi cumulative rent growth multifamily 2014 2024 top markets RealPage cumulative rent growth 2005 to 2025 2015 to 2025 multifamily metros RealPage CoStar Yardi long term multifamily rent growth by metro 2005 to 2025

assessed as of 2026-09-02

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Mentioned

Austin Dallas multifamily rent growth Tampa

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Disclosure

Broyer: Newbrook avoids real estate acquisitions in California and New York

“We do not touch California. We don't touch New York. These places where you don't know if there's going to be restrictions put in place that are going to impact our ability to manage the assets the way we need to, or that are going to increase taxes on the sal…”

James Breuer Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 28:00 Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475)

Assertion Partly supported

Broyer: Multifamily real estate values dropped about 30% from peak

“After about a year and a half, to Robert's point of getting to that six percent cash on cash, finally saw these values Drop about 30% from peak, and then we were able to start buying below replacement cost.”

James Breuer Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 16:39 Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475)

Disclosure

Newbrook targets two-thirds of investment returns from cash flow

“For us, to Robert's point, we look to have about two thirds of our return to come from cash flow. That is the best risk adjusted way for us to look at these versus a floating rate buyer that might not care about cash flow and might rely on appreciation at the …”

James Breuer Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 21:18 Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475)

Disclosure

Broyer: Newbrook underwrites property exits assuming a persistent buyer's market

“We underwrite that we're going to be selling them in an environment similar to today, which is largely a buyer's market.”

James Breuer Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 28:59 Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Broyer: Multifamily investing is far less crowded due to overleveraged syndicators

“Multi-family is far less crowded than it was a couple of years ago, given the number of people that have floating rate debt, that are over levered, that are on the sidelines, that can't raise capital.”

James Breuer Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 29:50 Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475)

Disclosure

Broyer: Real Estate Insurance Costs Have Fallen Drastically Over Past 12-24 Months

“Although insurance has come down drastically over the past 12 and 24 months, We're seeing a lot of renewals where we're decreasing our insurance costs across the country.”

James Breuer Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 41:19 Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475)

Broyer: Austin, Dallas, and Tampa have not led long-term rent growth

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