95% of late-stage growth outcomes hinge on idiosyncratic execution, not macro
Michael Carmen · Michael Carmen – Late-Stage Private Investing at Wellington (EP.332) · Aug 10, 2023 · at 42:37
Michael Carmen, who leads late-stage private equity at Wellington Management, explains why macro economic cycles matter far less than idiosyncratic company fundamentals.
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“When I look at all of the mistakes that we've made in the last eight, nine years, and all the successes that we've had in that same period of time, 95% of the time, if not more, it's idiosyncratic, is did we get the fundamentals right on the companies that we invested in? Did we value the companies appropriately for where they were and where they were going? And that's what it's mostly come down to because our companies on average growing 50% or more. And so whether we're in a three percent GDP economy or one percent GDP economy or inflation's six percent or two percent, it's not going to be the gating factor on whether we do well or do not.”
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