Anthony Pompliano explains the strategic advantages of running an operating holding company rather than raising traditional recurring venture funds.
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2030
Pompliano predicts Series A and later venture returns will compress to 15%
“Now, what we've seen over the last decade or so is so much capital coming to the market. Maybe there's been an incremental increase in the number of good companies created every year, but it's not kept pace with the amount of capital. And so my thought process…”
Disclosure
Pompliano sold Reflexivity Research to DeFi Technologies in an all-stock deal
“We sold that research business to a publicly traded company in Canada called DeFi Technologies. They were an asset management firm. They had crypto ETPs in Europe. If you have asset management, you need research. You put those together. Not a new original idea…”
Insight
Pompliano: Believing in luck is poison that strips people of agency
“What I realized was, luck is actually poison, because it strips people of agency. So if you constantly rely on luck, if you constantly fall back on good luck, bad luck, what you're saying is that you have no agency.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Facebook ran a 90-day project to grow Zuckerberg and Sandberg's followings
“There was a three-person team that was assembled. It was a ninety-day special project, and the whole goal was to help those two individuals grow their following on Facebook, which, when I tell people that, they always think it sounds a little almost vain, but …”
Assertion Contradicted
Pompliano claims average VC funds outperformed QQQ by 400 basis points
“QQQ's been compounding it, call it, 1313 and a half, maybe 14%, depending on what their starting point over the last decade or so. The average venture fund, if you give them all the credit for their paper marks, 17% a year or something, maybe 18%. So if you ju…”
Insight
Pompliano: The hardest part of investing is selling correctly, not buying
“I used to think that the hardest part of investing was buying the right assets, and I'm now fully convinced that the hardest part of investing is selling correctly”