Peter Troob discusses structural liquidity mismatches in high-yield ETFs when retail and institutional unit redemptions surge without underlying buyers.
Insight
Passive Distressed Debt Investors Underperform Lead Investors by 500 Bps
“I think any one year can come out differently, but I think over time you're going to get high single, low double digit returns out of the control leader, and you're going to get 500 basis points worse out of the other guys over time, because what they'll get c…”
Insight
Illiquid Structured Bonds Only Avoid Drawdowns Because They Escape Marking
“This idea that you invest in non-liquid structured product bonds, and say, but look at those, they never go down. They don't go down because they never get marked. It's not that they don't go down because they don't go down. That's a fool's game that will get …”
Insight
PE Sponsors Strip Distressed Bondholder Collateral via Restricted Payment Baskets
“What, I mean, you can see it in what they did with J.Crew, where they can, and now they're, I think they might be doing it in PetSmart as well, where they're able to have a restricted payment basket, move parts of companies out, and the bond guys get held, sit…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Distressed Debt Returns Will Remain Muted Without a Systemic Shock
“So you either have to have a monster shock to the system, which I'm not sure anyone foresees, or you're gonna find that distressed returns are muted because of the amount of money, until money starts coming out.”
Opinion
Mega Distressed Funds Outcompete Smaller Players via Capital Duration
“The very large players, I mean, the ones with north of 10, twenty billion, even bigger than that, they just have longer term assets, they can make structurally interesting decisions, and they can both wait you out and buy you out in, like, rights offerings whe…”
Insight
Distressed Debt Investors Must Target Sub-$20M Deals for Deal Control
“The large guys have a big advantage right now. They really get the look at a better deals, and they get to structure them themselves. You have to go pretty far down the curve, maybe sub-twenty, sub-fifteen million dollar kind of investments where they don't ca…”