Toby Rodes

Co-Founder and CIO, Kaname Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

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investorfounderexecutivekanamecapital.com ↗

Toby Rodes specializes in Japanese small-cap equities, focusing on fundamental deep-value investing and corporate governance engagement. Prior to co-founding Kaname Capital in 2018, he lived in Japan and worked as a senior portfolio manager at GMO.

32statements → 15claims → 6claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.91/5average certainty → 2.25/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

4 supported 2 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 8 not checkable as stated how the 15 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 13 assertions · 8 opinions · 6 insights · 3 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 15 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 6 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 8 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Toby argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Japan Adopted Poison Pills to Block Mid-2000s Activist Asset Stripping

“So out of this came a spade of poison pills, and Japan circled the wagons and shut down governance reform to basically prevent the looting and the asset stripping of a Japan that was finding itself undervalued at a very weak point in its recovery from the prev…”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 22:08 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Toby Rodes on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

What they said32 Episodes1

Everything Toby Rodes said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion

Rising Japanese Interest Rates Will Enforce Corporate Capital Discipline

“We think it's positive because what it does is it finally puts a price tag On the cost of debt, and it means that what was being offered for free, you're now going to have to pay for. And anytime you put a price tag on decision making, people start to act. So …”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 51:48 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Japanese Companies No Longer Benefit From Yen Weakening Past 140

“When the end went through one 40, Japanese companies started saying, you know, this is not good for us anymore. So they've already been signaling that they don't want the end to go to one 60. So they're prepared for even our round tripping back to the one fort…”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 52:43 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Opinion

Japan's Equity Market Previously Operated Like an Unbuyable Museum

“Up until this market for control, the market really wasn't functioning. Japan was a museum. You could come, you could look, you could examine, you could read about, you could be interested in, but you couldn't buy anything.”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 53:45 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Assertion Supported

Japan Routed 20% of GDP Through Banks in 1997-2003 Cleanup

“20% of Japan's GDP was run through the Japanese banking system between 1997 and 2003.”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 20:26 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Assertion Supported

Half of Listed Japanese Companies Still Trade Below Book Value

“By most counts, still half of listed Japan trades at less than one time priced a book.”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 35:48 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

300 High-Quality Japanese Companies Trade Under 5.5x EBITDA

“Then we just ask that we're able to get those stocks on less than five and a half times EBITDA, And lo and behold, there are still 300 of these companies in Japan.”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 37:38 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Disclosure

Kaname's Top Holdings Trade at 3.5x EBITDA and 9x Earnings

“We're still with 50% of our weight, sub four times EBITDA, about three and a half times EBITDA, nine times earnings, three percent dividend yield.”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 46:24 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Disclosure

Kaname Targets Companies Avoiding Japanese National Champion Protection Risks

“I would suggest that where we're operating though still offers another path and that the average size of our companies are distinctly middle market and nothing that we're bidding on or areas we're operating on is quote unquote essential and would fall under th…”

Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 50:11 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)

Appearances (1)

Episode	Date	Speaking time
Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)	Sep 23, 2024	44m

Toby Rodes

The record, in short

Their most notable supported claim

How they sound: not measured why? →

Appearances (1)

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