Rob Citrone

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Discovery Capital Management · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutivediscoverycapitalmanagement.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Rob Citrone is a macro investor who founded Discovery Capital Management in 1999, specializing in global macro strategies and emerging markets. Prior to launching Discovery, he managed emerging market investments at Fidelity and Tiger Management, and he is a minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

52statements → 23claims → 9claims resolved → 56%fully supported → 3.75/5average certainty → 2.15/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

5 supported 1 partly supported 3 contradicted 14 not checkable as stated how the 23 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

17 predictions · 6 assertions · 3 opinions · 12 insights · 14 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 23 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 9 are resolved, and 14 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Rob argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up

The Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control Peg Cannot Hold

“In fact, I think one of the best opportunities in the world, quite frankly, is in Japan, where they have the YCC program, where they have tenure rates pegged to 25 basis points, zero to 25. There's no way that's going to hold in this environment.”

Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 30:13 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Citrone: US Core Inflation Has Peaked but Won't Fall Fast Enough

“I actually think inflation is rolling over. It's just going to take longer to come down to the acceptable levels, but it's rolling over. It's peaked in our view. The real risk on the headline is energy prices and maybe food prices. I mean, maybe headline can g…”

Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 9:32 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1

none yet certainty 2

0% certainty 3

75% certainty 4

100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Rob Citrone on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

What they said52 Episodes1

Everything Rob Citrone said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Disclosure

Citrone Personally Funded Discovery Capital to Support Organization During Asset Contraction

“I had to take a lot of money out of my own pocket to support the organization for the last couple of years, but I'm glad I've done it.”

Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 42:40 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)

Assertion Supported

Citrone: Discovery Made Back All Investor Losses and More Within Two Years

“Instead of closing down, I think we distinguished ourselves by sticking with our investors. We made their money all back. And more in less than a two year period.”

Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 43:13 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)

Assertion Supported

Citrone: 1990s Restructured Latin American Debt Yielded 25% in Dollars

“At the time, they were restructuring a lot of the Latin American debt and the Brady bonds, and we got involved in buying some of this debt, and the yields were 25% in dollars.”

Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 6:54 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)

Disclosure

Discovery Shorted Developed Sovereign Debt but Covered Too Early

“In fact, they were generally good shorts, and we were short most of them. Unfortunately, we covered a little bit too early.”

Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 30:05 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)

Appearances (1)

Episode	Date	Speaking time
Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators,	Jul 11, 2022	32m