Rick Heitzman

1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

31statements → 13claims → 6claims resolved → 17%fully supported → 3.71/5average certainty → 1.94/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

1 supported 4 partly supported 1 contradicted 7 not checkable as stated how the 13 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

5 predictions · 8 assertions · 5 opinions · 10 insights · 3 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 13 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 6 are resolved, and 7 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Rick argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
Heitzmann: Thousands of startups needing capital will fail by late 2024
“There's thousands of companies that are going to need capital between now and the end of 24. The investors at almost every stage have generally been hurt by the macroeconomic environment. The purse strings are pretty tight. But the amount of companies that may…”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 57:52 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Heitzmann: The gaming industry was twice the size of movies in 2005
“People didn't realize that gaming was twice the size of motion pictures, even in 2005”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 51:21 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Rick Heitzman on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Rick Heitzman said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Partly supported
US Search burned $70 million in nine months after its IPO
“Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns took them public. They raised about seventy million dollars and they burned through it in about nine months.”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 13:45 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Heitzmann: 9/11 drove US Search monthly sales down by 93%
“In addition to that, just the overall uncertainty and risk sent our sales down 93% in a month.”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 14:55 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)
Disclosure
FirstMark seeded Pinterest based on non-consensus mobile and social discovery theses
“Because we aligned with the way the entrepreneur was thinking, we decided to do a seed investment in Pinterest.”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 29:23 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)
Disclosure
FirstMark backed Riot Games on a non-consensus games-as-a-service thesis
“So all three of those things were non-consensus and why we decided to do the first round of Riot Games.”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 30:33 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)
Disclosure
FirstMark told all portfolio companies to scrap 2022 budgets in January 2022
“In the fourth quarter of 21, we were budgeting for 22, with still a consensus in the broader market that the top three things that matter for your company in twenty-twenty-two were going to be growth, growth, and growth. And we went back in January of 22 acros…”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 59:32 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
John Doerr and Mike Moritz were always fully prepared for board meetings
“I sat on a board at a company called Elance, which became Upwork with John Doerr years ago. He was always the first person in his seat at board meetings. He was always on time, always read the materials. I also spent some time with Mike Moritz, who was also, n…”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 1:05:14 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)
Assertion Partly supported
HyperScience processes billions of government forms for agencies like the DMV
“We have a company called HyperScience that processes billions of forms for the government to help basically process everything from DMV to Social Security payouts.”
Rick Heitzman Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 49:31 Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350)

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Rick Heitzmann – New York Venture Investing at FirstMark Capital (EP.350) Nov 13, 2023 55m
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