Michael Cembalest

Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan · 1 appearance on the record.

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Michael Cembalest is Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management. He previously served as Chief Investment Officer of J.P. Morgan's Global Private Bank and author of Eye on the Market.

33statements → 18claims → 16claims resolved → 56%fully supported → 3.91/5average certainty → 2.27/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 4said about them ↓

9 supported 3 partly supported 4 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 18 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

4 predictions · 14 assertions · 2 opinions · 8 insights · 4 disclosures · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 18 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 16 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Michael argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up

Cembalest: Trump administration will post severe midterm losses despite strong economy

“I think this is the first administration that's going to post a double bogey At a time of strong stock markets and strong employment with respect to the losses they sustain in the midterm election.”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 39:11 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Cembalest: US municipal restructurings will rise continuously without federal intervention

“But absent intervention from the Fed or the Treasury, which I have a 95% confidence won't happen, we're gonna have Can you continuously rising stream of restructurings at the municipal level over the next few years?”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 43:32 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1

none yet certainty 2

50% certainty 3

68% certainty 4

none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Michael Cembalest on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

What they said33 What others said4 Episodes1

Everything Michael Cembalest said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight

Cembalest: Institutions rebalance far more systematically than private clients

“On the other hand, investment committees for institutional clients are much more religious about rebalancing. So, As equity, as asset prices go up, they are religiously rebalancing back to normal, and are also adding risk when markets go down, which is a much,…”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 35:39 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Insight

Cembalest: Bank recapitalizations speed market and employment recoveries faster than bad-loan purchases

“When governments recapitalize banks, the recovery and the equity markets and employment tend to happen more quickly than when governments simply buy their bad loans.”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 37:28 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Assertion Partly supported

Cembalest: Municipalities can legally alter retiree healthcare, but pensions are inviolable

“Municipalities can unilaterally make changes to retiree healthcare obligations that are unpopular, but a judge will allow, whereas unfunded pensions are inviolable.”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 45:34 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Assertion Contradicted

Cembalest: Electricity is only 10% to 15% of industrial energy use

“I think electricity is maybe 10 or 15% of overall energy consumption by industry.”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 54:16 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Exposing false data reversed a J.P. Morgan management decision within a month

“Within a month, the decision was reversed, and some people were gone.”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 1:04:37 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Assertion Supported

Cembalest: Mexican government bond underwriting fees fell from 200 bps to zero

“If you were underwriting a Mexican government bond, you could still get paid a point and a half to two points in underwriting fees. Now you don't do it for anything except leave cable credit, and there's no fees”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 12:18 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Assertion Supported

Hedge funds generate massive short-term capital gains for taxable clients

“Hedge funds for clients that are taxable versus non-taxable because hedge funds generate enormous amounts of short-term capital gains to ordinary income.”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 28:31 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Assertion Supported

Cembalest: Trump tariffs are largest in 50 years from 100-year low base

“It's the biggest tariff increase in 50 years, but from the lowest tariff level in a hundred years.”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 42:16 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

Insight

Cembalest: Senior Leaders Must Reassure Investors After Well-Founded Losses

“Sometimes just an email, or asking a very senior person, hey, you know what, somebody just lost a bunch of money today. Can you give them a pep talk? Can you send an email? Tell them it's okay. We need investors to be able to take risk. And this risk was well-…”

Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 1:05:51 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)

The other half of the tape: Michael Cembalest's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 4 times in 2 episodes on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Meredith Jenkins 2 David Zorub 2