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Herb Wagner

Managing Partner & Founder, Finepoint Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutivefinepointcapital.com ↗

Herb Wagner is the founder and Managing Partner of Finepoint Capital, a Boston-based opportunistic value hedge fund. Previously, he served as co-portfolio manager at The Baupost Group and worked at Appaloosa Management.

27statements → 8claims → 6claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.96/5average certainty → 1.93/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 1said about them ↓

4 supported 1 partly supported 1 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 8 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 7 assertions · 1 opinion · 7 insights · 11 disclosures · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 8 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 6 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Herb argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Wagner: Florida wind reinsurance yields over 50% for 1-in-10 risk
“The way I characterize it is if you underwrite a risk that has a one in 10 chance of happening, historically that would get priced that you get paid 15 or 20% to take that risk. That number's over 50%. So the pricing around a unit of risk in Florida wind now i…”
Herb Wagner Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 50:54 Herb Wagner – Opportunistic Value at Finepoint Capital (EP.460)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Wagner: Over 90% of the Japanese stock market is passively managed
“I'd never been able to exactly quantify this number. I think over 90% of the market is passively managed. There's very, very few fundamental bottoms up investors in Japan.”
Herb Wagner Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 43:22 Herb Wagner – Opportunistic Value at Finepoint Capital (EP.460)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
0% certainty 3
90% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Herb Wagner on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Herb Wagner said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Disclosure
Wagner: Finepoint hedges all non-dollar exposures back to US dollars
“Since we're fundamental investors, we hedge currency, commodity, and interest rates at the investment level. So for example, we hedge the yen. We don't have a view on the yen dollar. We think about ourselves as being dollar investors. So we hedge anything that…”
Herb Wagner Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 52:19 Herb Wagner – Opportunistic Value at Finepoint Capital (EP.460)
Disclosure
Wagner: Finepoint's Japanese portfolio holdings do most business outside Japan
“Most of the companies that we invest in actually are most of their businesses outside of Japan.”
Herb Wagner Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 53:23 Herb Wagner – Opportunistic Value at Finepoint Capital (EP.460)
Disclosure
Wagner: Bought minority ownership stake in Boston Red Sox in 2012
“Back in 2012 through one of my mentors, I was offered the chance to buy a small piece in the Boston Red Sox. And I instantly jumped at it.”
Herb Wagner Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 1:07:47 Herb Wagner – Opportunistic Value at Finepoint Capital (EP.460)

The other half of the tape: Herb Wagner's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 1 time in 1 episode on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Ted Seides 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0011112025episodesmentions
0112025episodes it came up in
000.50.5112025episodesmentions per episode
2025 1 mention in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Herb Wagner – Opportunistic Value at Finepoint Capital (EP.460) Sep 22, 2025 56m
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